Ravens vs. Bills

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Bills (50%) · Bills at 62¢ · $45K held · ends Nov 1

Ravens39¢Bills61¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bills

Consensus Traders

Bills 50%

Total Value

$44.6K

Combined PnL

$81.1

Smart Money Entry

61.9¢ → 61.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralBills at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ravens39%

Bills62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bills5 traders

Total Value$25.7K

Total Shares41,385

Combined PnL-$152.48

Ravens5 traders

Total Value$18.9K

Total Shares49,347

Combined PnL+$233.59

Bills — 50%Ravens — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Bills) and the top 1000 (8 on Ravens) disagree here.

whaleRavens 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpRavens 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRavens 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedBills 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Ravens 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA Mastermoney	Billsavg 62¢	$20.0K	$20.0K	-$161.26	47% 221-247 (468)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Ravensavg 38¢	$7.6K	$7.7K	+$100.14	53% 915-808 (1723)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Ravensavg 38¢	$6.0K	$6.1K	+$84.03	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
TA takeormakeCTR	Ravensavg 38¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$60.42	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
VeryLucky888	Billsavg 61¢	$3.2K	$3.0K	+$24.77	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
DA darkumbreon88	Billsavg 62¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$18.48	65% 1758-962 (2720)
AA aaabbbCTR	Ravensavg 39¢	$390	$380	-$10	50% 447-446 (893)
SL slimjoe	Billsavg 61¢	$314.76	$319.92	+$2.58	51% 6525-6188 (12713)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Ravensavg 39¢	$78	$76	-$1	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Billsavg 62¢	$13.02	$13.02	-$0.11	57% 29237-21620 (50857)

Mastermoney

Bills

Invested

$20,000

Value

$20.0K

PnL

-$161.26

Record

47%

221-247 (468)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Ravens

Invested

$7,599.83

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$100.14

Record

53%

915-808 (1723)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Ravens

Invested

$6,036.68

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$84.03

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

takeormakeCTR

Ravens

Invested

$4,591.81

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$60.42

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

VeryLucky888

Bills

Invested

$3,231.33

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$24.77

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

darkumbreon88

Bills

Invested

$2,290.95

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$18.48

Record

65%

1758-962 (2720)

aaabbbCTR

Ravens

Invested

$390

Value

$380

PnL

-$10

Record

50%

447-446 (893)

slimjoe

Bills

Invested

$314.76

Value

$319.92

PnL

+$2.58

Record

51%

6525-6188 (12713)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Ravens

Invested

$78

Value

$76

PnL

-$1

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Bills

Invested

$13.02

Value

$13.02

PnL

-$0.11

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Research grade

NeutralBills at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Bills) and the top 1000 (8 on Ravens) disagree here.

whaleRavens 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpRavens 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRavens 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedBills 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Ravens 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bills wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.