Consensus PnL $57K · win rate 70% (71–30, n=101) · PM monthly #767 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$56.5K
Record
71W / 30L
Win Rate
70.0%
of 101 settled
Batting Avg
80.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#758
Source
PM monthly #767
Trades
203
Markets
134
Volume
$462.1K
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $4.4K · now 89¢ · in at 41¢with the consensus (57% of 54)
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?No $62 · now 2¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
Specialties
116 settled consensus markets · held side won 60% at an average entry of 50¢- Soccer
+24 pts
side won 75% of 12 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +6%
- Mentions
+8 pts
side won 60% of 58 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +7%
- Geopolitics
+14 pts
side won 70% of 10 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +6%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 36%(won 17% of 42)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 67% of 15)
- 50–70¢: 13%(won 73% of 15)
- 70¢ and up: 38%(won 95% of 44)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.