Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (98%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 2.3¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 57%
$4.3K
$-1.2K
48.7¢ → 2.3¢
-95% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
60 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO cowcat | Yesavg 17.3¢ | $5.72 | $3.2K | +$2.0K | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Yesavg 91.2¢ | $807.5 | $864.72 | +$58.11 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
 RememberAmalekCTR | Noavg 42.7¢ | $1.6K | $87.24 | $-1.5K | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
MI MiojinhoCTR | Noavg 52¢ | $309.79 | $61.63 | $-1.3K | 58% 72-53 (125) |
JE Jest55CTR | Noavg 74.5¢ | $417.9 | $12.49 | -$391.9 | 75% 1028-338 (1366) |
IN insidero<$100 | Yesavg 52.6¢ | $3.29 | $6.11 | +$2.83 | 76% 291-93 (384) |
TT tttt123CTR<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $13.76 | $0.64 | -$13.11 | 72% 1535-585 (2120) |
Invested
$5.72
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$2.0K
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$807.5
Value
$864.72
PnL
+$58.11
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
RememberAmalekCTRInvested
$1,594.38
Value
$87.24
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
Invested
$309.79
Value
$61.63
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
58%
72-53 (125)
Invested
$417.9
Value
$12.49
PnL
-$391.9
Record
75%
1028-338 (1366)
Invested
$3.29
Value
$6.11
PnL
+$2.83
Record
76%
291-93 (384)
Invested
$13.76
Value
$0.64
PnL
-$13.11
Record
72%
1535-585 (2120)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.