Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

30 of 53 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 89¢ · $580K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$579.6K

Combined PnL

$151.7K

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 88.5¢

+72% since entry · 30 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

30 of 53 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No30 traders

Total Value$542.3K

Total Shares615,476

Combined PnL+$204.6K

Yes23 traders

Total Value$36.0K

Total Shares300,732

Combined PnL$-52.8K

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

30 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

4147h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

31 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (34 on Yes) and the top 1000 (34 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 58% · 19

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 24

Aligned

ctrYes 59% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 56% · 34

Diverging

Top 1000No 65% · 34

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TR Trump2028	Noavg 62.6¢	$118.5K	$166.5K	+$49.0K	82% 402-89 (491)
RememberAmalek	Noavg 28.8¢	$34.3K	$102.9K	+$68.6K	56% 973-769 (1742)
KE Kevindoto	Noavg 39.4¢	$31.7K	$44.0K	+$12.3K	80% 437-110 (547)
AP apmt	Noavg 56.3¢	$26.9K	$34.6K	+$7.7K	74% 64-22 (86)
tja	Noavg 38.1¢	$13.6K	$29.6K	+$16.1K	73% 867-323 (1190)
eCash	Noavg 76.4¢	$19.9K	$22.9K	+$3.2K	68% 330-155 (485)
LI lineth	Noavg 50.5¢	$10.2K	$17.8K	+$7.7K	41% 245-350 (595)
SL SlenderMan	Noavg 78.5¢	$17.5K	$17.6K	+$100.02	72% 257-102 (359)
SI singularityman	Noavg 55¢	$10.8K	$17.0K	+$6.2K	42% 138-193 (331)
MisTKy	Noavg 77.1¢	$16.3K	$16.4K	+$93.13	71% 568-236 (804)
tetraseCTR	Yesavg 31.4¢	$37.5K	$15.8K	$-21.7K	61% 839-543 (1382)
WongKimArk	Noavg 21.3¢	$3.7K	$15.5K	+$11.8K	63% 217-127 (344)
AL alwaysOn	Noavg 82¢	$14.0K	$15.1K	+$1.1K	77% 632-185 (817)
yen4u	Noavg 18.5¢	$2.9K	$14.4K	+$11.4K	86% 807-136 (943)
JE Jest55	Noavg 57.5¢	$7.0K	$10.4K	+$3.4K	75% 1028-338 (1366)
MEPPCTR	Yesavg 18.9¢	$6.3K	$5.4K	-$917.06	64% 632-352 (984)
MI Miojinho	Noavg 41¢	$265.16	$4.4K	+$2.4K	58% 72-53 (125)
0X 0x333e8f4fb0353ef31cf1a7d00789e1319381369b	Noavg 73¢	$3.4K	$4.1K	+$726.92	97% 140-4 (144)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 59.2¢	$2.6K	$3.9K	+$1.3K	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
BR BrownBeesCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$7.2K	$3.6K	$-3.7K	61% 67-43 (110)
CarCTR	Yesavg 17.9¢	$9.4K	$3.6K	$-2.1K	67% 4164-2026 (6190)
88 881112ARB<$100	Yesavg 33.9¢	$2.4K	$1.3K	$-1.1K	37% 566-944 (1510)
└ No leg	Noavg 73¢	$567.21	$683.76	+$120.44
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33.9¢	$1.8K	$642.6	$-1.2K
Tenebrus7	Noavg 63.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$7.5	73% 2952-1072 (4024)
0xheavy888CTR	Yesavg 89¢	$8.9K	$1.1K	$-7.8K	55% 7314-5881 (13195)
classifiedCTR	Yesavg 20.9¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$95.83	58% 843-614 (1457)

Trump2028

Invested

$118,452.63

Value

$166.5K

PnL

+$49.0K

Record

82%

402-89 (491)

RememberAmalek

Invested

$34,322.75

Value

$102.9K

PnL

+$68.6K

Record

56%

973-769 (1742)

Kevindoto

Invested

$31,676.84

Value

$44.0K

PnL

+$12.3K

Record

80%

437-110 (547)

apmt

Invested

$26,874

Value

$34.6K

PnL

+$7.7K

Record

74%

64-22 (86)

tja

Invested

$13,568.1

Value

$29.6K

PnL

+$16.1K

Record

73%

867-323 (1190)

eCash

Invested

$19,860

Value

$22.9K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

68%

330-155 (485)

lineth

Invested

$10,227.23

Value

$17.8K

PnL

+$7.7K

Record

41%

245-350 (595)

SlenderMan

Invested

$17,499.98

Value

$17.6K

PnL

+$100.02

Record

72%

257-102 (359)

singularityman

Invested

$10,774.9

Value

$17.0K

PnL

+$6.2K

Record

42%

138-193 (331)

MisTKy

Invested

$16,293.88

Value

$16.4K

PnL

+$93.13

Record

71%

568-236 (804)

tetraseCTR

Yes

Invested

$37,501.55

Value

$15.8K

PnL

$-21.7K

Record

61%

839-543 (1382)

WongKimArk

Invested

$3,660.69

Value

$15.5K

PnL

+$11.8K

Record

63%

217-127 (344)

alwaysOn

Invested

$14,033.24

Value

$15.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

77%

632-185 (817)

yen4u

Invested

$2,942.48

Value

$14.4K

PnL

+$11.4K

Record

86%

807-136 (943)

Jest55

Invested

$6,995.12

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

75%

1028-338 (1366)

MEPPCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,322.91

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$917.06

Record

64%

632-352 (984)

Miojinho

Invested

$265.16

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

58%

72-53 (125)

0x333e8f4fb0353ef31cf1a7d00789e1319381369b

Invested

$3,423.54

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$726.92

Record

97%

140-4 (144)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$2,598.78

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

BrownBeesCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,204.09

Value

$3.6K

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

61%

67-43 (110)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,439.6

Value

$3.6K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

67%

4164-2026 (6190)

881112ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,384.61

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

37%

566-944 (1510)

Both legs:

No$567.2173¢+$120.44

Yes$1,817.433.9¢$-1.2K

Tenebrus7

Invested

$1,312.51

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$7.5

Record

73%

2952-1072 (4024)

0xheavy888CTR

Yes

Invested

$8,900

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-7.8K

Record

55%

7314-5881 (13195)

classifiedCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,233.56

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$95.83

Record

58%

843-614 (1457)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

30 of 53 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

30 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

4147h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

31 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (34 on Yes) and the top 1000 (34 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 58% · 19

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 24

Aligned

ctrYes 59% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 56% · 34

Diverging

Top 1000No 65% · 34

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.