Consensus PnL $26K · win rate 48% (3736–4063, n=7799) · PM monthly #954 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$25.7K
Record
3736W / 4063L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 7799 settled
Batting Avg
80.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1869
Source
PM monthly #954
Trades
402
Markets
8,387
Volume
$2.6M
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 7 on the consensus side (57%)- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5Under $593 · now 61¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (58% of 20)
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-10?Yes $477 · now 31¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?No $443 · now 54¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (76% of 32)
- Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-11-01?Yes $412 · now 31¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Liverpool LFC win on 2026-11-01?No $405 · now 99¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Rot-Weiss Essen win on 2026-11-01?No $366 · now 50¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (50% of 5)
- Rostock Seawolves vs. FC Bayern MunchenRostock Seawolves $217 · now 15¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (FC Bayern Munchen)
Specialties
3,159 settled consensus markets · held side won 85% at an average entry of 46¢- College Football
+56 pts
side won 96% of 28 · avg entry 40¢
ROI +64%
- Tennis
+41 pts
side won 86% of 1114 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +33%
- Soccer
+40 pts
side won 85% of 1399 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +26%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 16%(won 51% of 493)
- 30–50¢: 39%(won 88% of 1237)
- 50–70¢: 45%(won 95% of 1428)
- 70¢ and up: 0%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.