Consensus PnL $144K · win rate 70% (1736–753, n=2489) · hand-picked wallet · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$144.3K
Record
1736W / 753L
Win Rate
70.0%
of 2489 settled
Batting Avg
62.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#734
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
65,005
Markets
4,296
Volume
$6.0M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- US recession by end of 2026?No $3.8K · now 95¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (96% of 27)
- Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?No $516 · now 98¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (88% of 17)
Specialties
3,545 settled consensus markets · held side won 72% at an average entry of 68¢- Crypto
+6 pts
side won 82% of 302 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +4%
- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 81% of 756 · avg entry 77¢
ROI +2%
- Entertainment
+4 pts
side won 71% of 349 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 73% of 11 at an average 76¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 19%(won 11% of 663)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 44% of 338)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 67% of 418)
- 70¢ and up: 60%(won 96% of 2126)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.