Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

15 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 98¢ · $32K held · ended Oct 20

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Tue, Oct 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$32.0K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

90.8¢ → 98.2¢

+8% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 17 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$32.0K

Total Shares32,569

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$19.36

Total Shares1,046

Combined PnL-$93.13

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

12 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chriszyy3	Noavg 97.1¢	$8.8K	$8.9K	+$95.35	94% 242-16 (258)
SC Scalpoor	Noavg 87.7¢	$7.1K	$7.9K	+$844.23	83% 30-6 (36)
ST StraddleSeller	Noavg 81.4¢	$3.1K	$5.1K	+$900.48	60% 174-115 (289)
CO cocococococo	Noavg 87.6¢	$3.7K	$4.1K	+$427.15	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 97.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$4.12	89% 4653-547 (5200)
studmuffin6969	Noavg 97.7¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$9	59% 1027-717 (1744)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 90.4¢	$549.82	$596.89	+$47.07	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
Oompa-Loompa	Noavg 86.3¢	$453.54	$515.76	+$62.22	72% 2621-1043 (3664)
KU kukubaja	Noavg 98¢	$376.45	$377.06	+$0.61	84% 516-99 (615)
Talophex	Noavg 97.3¢	$194.6	$196.3	+$1.7	91% 929-95 (1024)
allenzzz	Noavg 89.7¢	$139.47	$152.53	+$13.06	78% 125-36 (161)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$33.57	$34.33	+$0.76	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE<$100	Noavg 98¢	$28.69	$28.74	+$0.04	54% 1249-1044 (2293)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$62.44	$10.36	-$52.07	56% 973-770 (1743)
Warren-BuffettCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.3¢	$50.05	$8.99	-$41.06	65% 862-465 (1327)
RL RLWG<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$4.93	$4.91	-$0.02	50% 7972-8009 (15981)
TT tttt123<$100	Noavg 81.9¢	$1.47	$1.76	+$0.29	72% 1535-585 (2120)

chriszyy3

Invested

$8,817.48

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$95.35

Record

94%

242-16 (258)

Scalpoor

Invested

$7,102.98

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$844.23

Record

83%

30-6 (36)

StraddleSeller

Invested

$3,096.08

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$900.48

Record

60%

174-115 (289)

cocococococo

Invested

$3,704.06

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$427.15

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

nonkenny90

Invested

$1,990.94

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$4.12

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

studmuffin6969

Invested

$1,954

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$9

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$549.82

Value

$596.89

PnL

+$47.07

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Oompa-Loompa

Invested

$453.54

Value

$515.76

PnL

+$62.22

Record

72%

2621-1043 (3664)

kukubaja

Invested

$376.45

Value

$377.06

PnL

+$0.61

Record

84%

516-99 (615)

Talophex

Invested

$194.6

Value

$196.3

PnL

+$1.7

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

allenzzz

Invested

$139.47

Value

$152.53

PnL

+$13.06

Record

78%

125-36 (161)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.57

Value

$34.33

PnL

+$0.76

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

TAIWANNUMBERONE<$100

Invested

$28.69

Value

$28.74

PnL

+$0.04

Record

54%

1249-1044 (2293)

RememberAmalekCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.44

Value

$10.36

PnL

-$52.07

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

Warren-BuffettCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.05

Value

$8.99

PnL

-$41.06

Record

65%

862-465 (1327)

RLWG<$100

Invested

$4.93

Value

$4.91

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

7972-8009 (15981)

tttt123<$100

Invested

$1.47

Value

$1.76

PnL

+$0.29

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

15 of 17 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

12 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.2%

98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.