Consensus PnL $19K · win rate 75% (6–2, n=8) · was PM monthly #783 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$19.1K
Record
6W / 2L
Win Rate
75.0%
of 8 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#594
Source
PM monthly #783
Trades
3
Markets
14
Volume
$81.4K
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 6 on the consensus side (17%)- Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No $3.8K · now 59¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (47% of 17)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNo $3.5K · now 28¢ · in at 39¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $2.1K · now 31¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?Yes $1.5K · now 7¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?No $1.3K · now 7¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (Yes)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes $119 · now 23¢ · in at 30¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
7 settled consensus markets · held side won 86% at an average entry of 62¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where PetuniaPettigrew's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 0% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 57%(won 100% of 4)
- 70¢ and up: 29%(won 100% of 2)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.