Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?

18 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (72%) · Yes at 94¢ · $59K held · ends Nov 4

Yes94¢No6¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 72%

Total Value

$59.1K

Combined PnL

-$0.94

Smart Money Entry

88¢ → 93.5¢

+6% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 94%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 25 top traders (72%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes18 traders

Total Value$57.0K

Total Shares60,638

Combined PnL+$3.3K

No7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares34,764

Combined PnL$-3.3K

Yes — 72%No — 28%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

72% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 11

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 81% · 16

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
scottilicious	Yesavg 90.2¢	$16.5K	$17.2K	+$602.81	82% 945-201 (1146)
DZ dzsibenaja	Yesavg 87.8¢	$13.6K	$14.5K	+$875.41	88% 171-24 (195)
Seutervoinen	Yesavg 85.1¢	$13.5K	$13.9K	+$1.3K	85% 311-57 (368)
PMTraderAdam	Yesavg 85.3¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$181	77% 830-249 (1079)
StarMaster	Yesavg 92¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$7.5	53% 1857-1640 (3497)
PE PetuniaPettigrewCTR	Noavg 19¢	$4.2K	$1.3K	$-2.7K	— 6-1 (7)
CO cocococococo	Yesavg 88.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$56.38	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
SirHarryOakes	Yesavg 87.4¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$59.53	84% 215-41 (256)
IN insidero	Yesavg 90.5¢	$996	$1.0K	+$32.5	76% 291-93 (384)
aenews2	Yesavg 80¢	$852.78	$996.69	+$143.91	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
Ryxon21	Yesavg 92¢	$920	$940	+$15	71% 318-130 (448)
perfectnostalgia	Yesavg 92¢	$920	$940	+$15	55% 338-273 (611)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 90.2¢	$499.68	$518.09	+$18.41	38% 20-32 (52)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 91.3¢	$508.47	$511.19	+$2.72	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
PU PutsOnPeace	Yesavg 91¢	$456.75	$471.8	+$12.55	66% 955-482 (1437)
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 13¢	$781.44	$390.72	-$390.72	47% 474-534 (1008)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR	Noavg 7.2¢	$276.51	$231.66	-$25.42	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 90¢	$170.23	$162.95	+$6.39	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
probabilityCTR	Noavg 10.6¢	$143.33	$84.43	-$58.89	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
TH TheFOMCGambler<$100	Yesavg 81.6¢	$57.1	$65.8	+$8.35	76% 102-32 (134)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Noavg 8.1¢	$69.12	$53.41	-$14.27	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR	Noavg 17¢	$103.01	$36.37	-$63.61	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
BeneGesseritVoice<$100	Yesavg 80¢	$11.07	$13.01	+$1.87	69% 1138-518 (1656)
Donny.T<$100	Yesavg 91¢	$9.1	$9.4	+$0.25	72% 484-187 (671)
ChungvicularCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$6.3	$2.52	-$3.57	46% 49-57 (106)

scottilicious

Yes

Invested

$16,493.32

Value

$17.2K

PnL

+$602.81

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

dzsibenaja

Yes

Invested

$13,568.98

Value

$14.5K

PnL

+$875.41

Record

88%

171-24 (195)

Seutervoinen

Yes

Invested

$13,543.81

Value

$13.9K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

PMTraderAdam

Yes

Invested

$1,876

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$181

Record

77%

830-249 (1079)

StarMaster

Yes

Invested

$1,402.5

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$7.5

Record

53%

1857-1640 (3497)

PetuniaPettigrewCTR

Invested

$4,169.77

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

—

6-1 (7)

cocococococo

Yes

Invested

$1,090.85

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$56.38

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

SirHarryOakes

Yes

Invested

$1,004.39

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$59.53

Record

84%

215-41 (256)

insidero

Yes

Invested

$996

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$32.5

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

aenews2

Yes

Invested

$852.78

Value

$996.69

PnL

+$143.91

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

Ryxon21

Yes

Invested

$920

Value

$940

PnL

+$15

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

perfectnostalgia

Yes

Invested

$920

Value

$940

PnL

+$15

Record

55%

338-273 (611)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$499.68

Value

$518.09

PnL

+$18.41

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$508.47

Value

$511.19

PnL

+$2.72

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

PutsOnPeace

Yes

Invested

$456.75

Value

$471.8

PnL

+$12.55

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$781.44

Value

$390.72

PnL

-$390.72

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR

Invested

$276.51

Value

$231.66

PnL

-$25.42

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$170.23

Value

$162.95

PnL

+$6.39

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

probabilityCTR

Invested

$143.33

Value

$84.43

PnL

-$58.89

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

TheFOMCGambler<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.1

Value

$65.8

PnL

+$8.35

Record

76%

102-32 (134)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Invested

$69.12

Value

$53.41

PnL

-$14.27

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

wokerjoesleeperCTR

Invested

$103.01

Value

$36.37

PnL

-$63.61

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

BeneGesseritVoice<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.07

Value

$13.01

PnL

+$1.87

Record

69%

1138-518 (1656)

Donny.T<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.1

Value

$9.4

PnL

+$0.25

Record

72%

484-187 (671)

ChungvicularCTR<$100

Invested

$6.3

Value

$2.52

PnL

-$3.57

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 94%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

18 of 25 top traders (72%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

18 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

72% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 11

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 81% · 16

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.7%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.