Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 94¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 4

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$14.3K

Combined PnL

$-2.7K

Smart Money Entry

90.4¢ → 93.5¢

+3% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 94%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares13,008

Combined PnL+$353.35

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares32,583

Combined PnL$-3.1K

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

27 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TR Trump2028	Noavg 92¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$51.26	82% 402-89 (491)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 88.9¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$94.01	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
Ryxon21	Noavg 91¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$49.99	71% 318-130 (448)
PE PetuniaPettigrewCTR	Yesavg 19¢	$4.3K	$1.5K	$-2.8K	— 6-1 (7)
SQ SquirrelTheMerchant	Noavg 90¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$52.5	55% 78-65 (143)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 92.7¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$9.48	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
Seutervoinen	Noavg 87.9¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$66.05	85% 311-57 (368)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR	Yesavg 8.7¢	$702.36	$504.98	-$165.19	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Noavg 90¢	$179.08	$186.04	+$6.96	38% 20-32 (52)
aenews2	Noavg 80¢	$111.01	$129.74	+$18.73	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 8.9¢	$680.76	$117.31	-$76.93	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
DR Dreamwire<$100	Noavg 91¢	$59.15	$60.78	+$1.63	83% 2681-535 (3216)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.5¢	$53.61	$53.9	+$0.3	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
TT tttt123<$100	Noavg 86¢	$21.29	$23.14	+$1.86	72% 1535-585 (2120)
SF sfkjbsr457CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$30.6	$19.89	-$10.71	54% 8322-7007 (15329)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 90¢	$15.3	$15.9	+$0.6	32% 4493-9634 (14127)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.3¢	$17.94	$10.11	-$6.21	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$11.89	$9.98	-$1.91	40% 174-265 (439)

Trump2028

Invested

$3,143.69

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$51.26

Record

82%

402-89 (491)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$2,887.82

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$94.01

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

Ryxon21

Invested

$1,819.69

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$49.99

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

PetuniaPettigrewCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,268.64

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

—

6-1 (7)

SquirrelTheMerchant

Invested

$1,350

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$52.5

Record

55%

78-65 (143)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$1,126.65

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$9.48

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

Seutervoinen

Invested

$1,042.07

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$66.05

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR

Yes

Invested

$702.36

Value

$504.98

PnL

-$165.19

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

Contestable-Parfait

Invested

$179.08

Value

$186.04

PnL

+$6.96

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

aenews2

Invested

$111.01

Value

$129.74

PnL

+$18.73

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$680.76

Value

$117.31

PnL

-$76.93

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

Dreamwire<$100

Invested

$59.15

Value

$60.78

PnL

+$1.63

Record

83%

2681-535 (3216)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$53.61

Value

$53.9

PnL

+$0.3

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

tttt123<$100

Invested

$21.29

Value

$23.14

PnL

+$1.86

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

sfkjbsr457CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.6

Value

$19.89

PnL

-$10.71

Record

54%

8322-7007 (15329)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$15.3

Value

$15.9

PnL

+$0.6

Record

32%

4493-9634 (14127)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.94

Value

$10.11

PnL

-$6.21

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.89

Value

$9.98

PnL

-$1.91

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 94%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 18 top traders (67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

27 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.7%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.