Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 59¢ · $52K held · ends Nov 4

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$51.9K

Combined PnL

$480.19

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 59¢

-9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$40.2K

Total Shares62,392

Combined PnL-$943.8

Yes9 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares31,943

Combined PnL+$1.4K

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

222 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (6 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME Melody626	Noavg 63.3¢	$13.8K	$13.9K	+$48.2	58% 705-521 (1226)
RO Ronaldo2100	Noavg 62¢	$13.1K	$13.8K	+$318.11	46% 211-246 (457)
ZE zerosmartCTR	Yesavg 38¢	$6.3K	$6.1K	-$249.97	48% 66-72 (138)
FA faceverification	Noavg 62.6¢	$5.2K	$5.4K	+$73.2	66% 19-10 (29)
PE PetuniaPettigrew	Noavg 75.5¢	$4.7K	$4.1K	-$817.36	— 6-1 (7)
RememberAmalekCTR	Yesavg 25.5¢	$2.2K	$3.4K	+$1.2K	56% 973-769 (1742)
SI singularityman	Noavg 73.6¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$298.37	42% 138-193 (331)
SU supersmardCTR	Yesavg 28.2¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$357.76	39% 46-71 (117)
BeneGesseritVoice	Noavg 76¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$270	69% 1138-518 (1656)
ChungvicularCTR	Yesavg 31¢	$219.58	$258.54	+$38.96	46% 49-57 (106)
RA RailcoolCTR	Yesavg 23¢	$112.46	$178.47	+$66.01	51% 86-81 (167)
BigRabbitCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$43.67	$72.45	+$28.78	40% 704-1061 (1765)
SB sbimbg<$100	Noavg 61¢	$58.69	$61.1	+$2.41	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$24	$36.5	+$12.5	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
SL SlavaUkrainiCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$5.02	$30.82	+$10.55	71% 160-66 (226)
Valen9CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$2.33	$3.41	+$1.07	60% 406-274 (680)

Melody626

Invested

$13,834.07

Value

$13.9K

PnL

+$48.2

Record

58%

705-521 (1226)

Ronaldo2100

Invested

$13,147.86

Value

$13.8K

PnL

+$318.11

Record

46%

211-246 (457)

zerosmartCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,346.85

Value

$6.1K

PnL

-$249.97

Record

48%

66-72 (138)

faceverification

Invested

$5,165.3

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$73.2

Record

66%

19-10 (29)

PetuniaPettigrew

Invested

$4,749.36

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$817.36

Record

—

6-1 (7)

RememberAmalekCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,171.54

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

56%

973-769 (1742)

singularityman

Invested

$2,044.65

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$298.37

Record

42%

138-193 (331)

supersmardCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,269.78

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$357.76

Record

39%

46-71 (117)

BeneGesseritVoice

Invested

$1,520

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$270

Record

69%

1138-518 (1656)

ChungvicularCTR

Yes

Invested

$219.58

Value

$258.54

PnL

+$38.96

Record

46%

49-57 (106)

RailcoolCTR

Yes

Invested

$112.46

Value

$178.47

PnL

+$66.01

Record

51%

86-81 (167)

BigRabbitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.67

Value

$72.45

PnL

+$28.78

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

sbimbg<$100

Invested

$58.69

Value

$61.1

PnL

+$2.41

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

ScottyNoooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24

Value

$36.5

PnL

+$12.5

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

SlavaUkrainiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.02

Value

$30.82

PnL

+$10.55

Record

71%

160-66 (226)

Valen9CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.33

Value

$3.41

PnL

+$1.07

Record

60%

406-274 (680)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

222 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (6 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.0%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.