Consensus PnL $29K · win rate 64% (143–82, n=225) · was PM monthly #978 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$29.2K
Record
143W / 82L
Win Rate
64.0%
of 225 settled
Batting Avg
40.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#985
Source
PM monthly #978
Trades
385
Markets
305
Volume
$2.5M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 3 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $26K · now 66¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (65% of 138)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $11K · now 71¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (81% of 118)
- Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?No $1.4K · now 96¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (74% of 19)
Specialties
190 settled consensus markets · held side won 76% at an average entry of 63¢- Esports
+21 pts
side won 74% of 47 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +15%
- NBA
+22 pts
side won 71% of 14 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +22%
- Tech
+15 pts
side won 87% of 15 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +19%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 17%(won 18% of 33)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 61% of 31)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 81% of 37)
- 70¢ and up: 47%(won 100% of 89)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.