Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

14 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (74%) · No at 96¢ · $132K held · ends Jan 3, 2027

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Sun, Jan 3, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 74%

Total Value

$131.6K

Combined PnL

$23.9K

Smart Money Entry

77.5¢ → 95.5¢

+23% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 19 top traders (74%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$131.6K

Total Shares138,185

Combined PnL+$24.0K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$41.8

Total Shares929

Combined PnL-$182.97

No — 74%Yes — 26%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

4877h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

74% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 55% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
elmcap2	Noavg 89¢	$41.6K	$44.6K	+$3.0K	89% 1665-205 (1870)
TH thoodr	Noavg 93.2¢	$34.1K	$34.8K	+$666.89	96% 631-24 (655)
WongKimArk	Noavg 62.4¢	$18.7K	$28.5K	+$9.6K	63% 217-127 (344)
HE HerrieDavis	Noavg 49¢	$4.4K	$8.2K	+$3.8K	36% 2086-3722 (5808)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758	Noavg 49.1¢	$3.9K	$7.7K	+$3.7K	47% 85-95 (180)
BI BikesAreTheBikes	Noavg 26.6¢	$725.81	$2.4K	+$1.9K	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
PO PotatoKotato	Noavg 74¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$308.47	58% 142-101 (243)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 73.7¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$300.55	89% 4653-547 (5200)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 84.9¢	$830.09	$684.73	+$53.77	76% 11358-3527 (14885)
seal7	Noavg 42.9¢	$284.16	$633.12	+$348.96	49% 287-300 (587)
CO cocococococo	Noavg 31.5¢	$268.25	$453.27	+$185.02	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
siick	Noavg 76¢	$356.18	$445.23	+$86.7	57% 768-580 (1348)
TT tttt123	Noavg 79.5¢	$159	$190	+$30	72% 1535-585 (2120)
Car	Noavg 71¢	$154.51	$164.01	+$9.5	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$1.09	$20.28	+$19.2	47% 2036-2280 (4316)
aenews2CTR	Yesavg 69.5¢	$175.61	$11.36	-$164.25	60% 1777-1177 (2954)
CunglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$43.11	$9.24	-$31.82	63% 672-398 (1070)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100	Yesavg 37.3¢	$6.82	$0.82	-$5.99	57% 1114-837 (1951)
nicoco89CTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$0.22	$0.09	-$0.11	65% 1075-583 (1658)

elmcap2

Invested

$41,552.91

Value

$44.6K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

thoodr

Invested

$34,097.66

Value

$34.8K

PnL

+$666.89

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

WongKimArk

Invested

$18,748.52

Value

$28.5K

PnL

+$9.6K

Record

63%

217-127 (344)

HerrieDavis

Invested

$4,435.45

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

36%

2086-3722 (5808)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758

Invested

$3,940.81

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$3.7K

Record

47%

85-95 (180)

BikesAreTheBikes

Invested

$725.81

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

PotatoKotato

Invested

$1,121

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$308.47

Record

58%

142-101 (243)

nonkenny90

Invested

$1,065.92

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$300.55

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$830.09

Value

$684.73

PnL

+$53.77

Record

76%

11358-3527 (14885)

seal7

Invested

$284.16

Value

$633.12

PnL

+$348.96

Record

49%

287-300 (587)

cocococococo

Invested

$268.25

Value

$453.27

PnL

+$185.02

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

siick

Invested

$356.18

Value

$445.23

PnL

+$86.7

Record

57%

768-580 (1348)

tttt123

Invested

$159

Value

$190

PnL

+$30

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

Car

Invested

$154.51

Value

$164.01

PnL

+$9.5

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$20.28

PnL

+$19.2

Record

47%

2036-2280 (4316)

aenews2CTR

Yes

Invested

$175.61

Value

$11.36

PnL

-$164.25

Record

60%

1777-1177 (2954)

CunglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.11

Value

$9.24

PnL

-$31.82

Record

63%

672-398 (1070)

cambridgeisaacCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.82

Value

$0.82

PnL

-$5.99

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

nicoco89CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.11

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

14 of 19 top traders (74%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

4877h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

74% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 55% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.6%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.