Consensus PnL $21K · win rate 79% (239–65, n=304) · hand-picked wallet · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$21.0K
Record
239W / 65L
Win Rate
79.0%
of 304 settled
Batting Avg
66.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#463
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
1,818
Markets
392
Volume
$304.1K
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 4 on the consensus side (75%)- Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?No $328 · now 78¢ · in at 70¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $199 · now 95¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (79% of 107)
- Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?No $190 · now 78¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?No $92 · now 70¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
Specialties
334 settled consensus markets · held side won 93% at an average entry of 80¢- Crypto
+16 pts
side won 96% of 114 · avg entry 80¢
ROI +12%
- Elections
+16 pts
side won 100% of 28 · avg entry 84¢
ROI +10%
- Geopolitics
+10 pts
side won 89% of 71 · avg entry 79¢
ROI +11%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 20% of 5)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 73% of 11)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 84% of 31)
- 70¢ and up: 86%(won 95% of 287)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.