Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 69¢ · $13K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$13.3K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

58.7¢ → 69¢

+18% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 69%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$11.5K

Total Shares16,624

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares5,910

Combined PnL-$339.5

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Late

2241h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DumplingBMF	Noavg 59.2¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$115.67	68% 1830-849 (2679)
JO JoeBlack01	Noavg 52.6¢	$2.3K	$3.1K	+$732.29	60% 474-313 (787)
GL Gladius7	Noavg 66.9¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$81.77	48% 90-98 (188)
siickCTR	Yesavg 32.8¢	$2.2K	$1.8K	-$339.5	57% 768-580 (1348)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 63.3¢	$849.09	$1.0K	+$187.98	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
KR KrackenSruster	Noavg 50.7¢	$605	$690	+$85	66% 487-255 (742)
Porx	Noavg 53.5¢	$468.41	$621.18	+$152.77	66% 1482-769 (2251)
SL SlenderMan	Noavg 70¢	$292.03	$287.85	+$2.09	72% 257-102 (359)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Noavg 53.2¢	$199.99	$261.22	+$61.22	69% 156-69 (225)
PR Prinas	Noavg 76.4¢	$100	$90.26	-$11.05	80% 304-77 (381)
StarMaster<$100	Noavg 61¢	$62	$69	+$7	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 56.9¢	$60.11	$61.57	+$1.46	56% 14240-11046 (25286)

DumplingBMF

Invested

$3,021.2

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$115.67

Record

68%

1830-849 (2679)

JoeBlack01

Invested

$2,318.1

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$732.29

Record

60%

474-313 (787)

Gladius7

Invested

$2,101

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$81.77

Record

48%

90-98 (188)

siickCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,153.14

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$339.5

Record

57%

768-580 (1348)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$849.09

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$187.98

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

KrackenSruster

Invested

$605

Value

$690

PnL

+$85

Record

66%

487-255 (742)

Porx

Invested

$468.41

Value

$621.18

PnL

+$152.77

Record

66%

1482-769 (2251)

SlenderMan

Invested

$292.03

Value

$287.85

PnL

+$2.09

Record

72%

257-102 (359)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Invested

$199.99

Value

$261.22

PnL

+$61.22

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

Prinas

Invested

$100

Value

$90.26

PnL

-$11.05

Record

80%

304-77 (381)

StarMaster<$100

Invested

$62

Value

$69

PnL

+$7

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$60.11

Value

$61.57

PnL

+$1.46

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 69%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Late

2241h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.