Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

85 of 107 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 95¢ · $2.9M held · ends Nov 4

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

107

No 79%

Total Value

$2.9M

Combined PnL

$18.6K

Smart Money Entry

91.4¢ → 94.5¢

+3% since entry · 85 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 95%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

85 of 107 top traders (79%)22 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No85 traders

Total Value$2.7M

Total Shares2,892,410

Combined PnL+$87.2K

Yes22 traders

Total Value$162.0K

Total Shares2,832,800

Combined PnL$-68.6K

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

85 traders

Top 2 hold 29%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 29% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 78% · 40

Aligned

sharpNo 97% · 64

Aligned

sniperYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 62% · 26

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 91% · 43

Aligned

Top 1000No 79% · 84

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Protruder	Noavg 92¢	$460.0K	$475.0K	+$12.5K	81% 22-5 (27)
0X 0xB9d89bef8c935082F6a86355bD9667402D92275A-1751857844680	Noavg 90.8¢	$307.0K	$321.2K	+$12.6K	— 16-3 (19)
MiuMiuYan	Noavg 92.8¢	$205.3K	$210.2K	+$3.8K	83% 19-4 (23)
MI MissaoComFlavio	Noavg 93¢	$172.2K	$175.9K	+$2.8K	75% 233-77 (310)
betwick	Noavg 93¢	$149.2K	$152.4K	+$2.4K	55% 352-292 (644)
VO Votei14Voude22	Noavg 93¢	$122.6K	$124.5K	+$1.9K	78% 341-99 (440)
SC schizohedgehog	Noavg 93.1¢	$120.9K	$123.4K	+$1.8K	80% 48-12 (60)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 91.9¢	$110.9K	$114.0K	+$3.1K	85% 605-108 (713)
Tigerofthehood	Noavg 89.9¢	$105.8K	$111.2K	+$5.4K	87% 179-26 (205)
JSG3	Noavg 92¢	$105.8K	$109.3K	+$2.9K	58% 14-10 (24)
HI hideo	Noavg 86.1¢	$83.7K	$92.3K	+$8.2K	76% 253-81 (334)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 6.2¢	$95.7K	$85.1K	$-10.6K	43% 561-738 (1299)
yen4u	Noavg 91.6¢	$55.1K	$57.2K	+$1.8K	86% 807-136 (943)
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul	Noavg 91.7¢	$60.0K	$56.7K	+$1.7K	63% 353-204 (557)
AN Andylow5CTR	Yesavg 9.2¢	$83.3K	$54.2K	$-33.6K	— 1-0 (1)
Erasmus.	Noavg 88¢	$44.8K	$48.3K	+$3.3K	65% 393-215 (608)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Noavg 92.3¢	$41.6K	$42.6K	+$1.0K	69% 156-69 (225)
GoriIIa	Noavg 85.5¢	$37.6K	$41.8K	+$4.0K	73% 229-85 (314)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 92.2¢	$34.7K	$35.6K	+$870.73	89% 4652-547 (5199)
FL FlyingPlaty	Noavg 86.4¢	$32.0K	$33.2K	+$1.2K	98% 982-16 (998)
Dropper	Noavg 92¢	$29.1K	$29.9K	+$786.59	71% 1136-463 (1599)
Jellow2	Noavg 90¢	$27.0K	$28.5K	+$1.4K	64% 299-169 (468)
Ryxon21	Noavg 94¢	$25.0K	$25.3K	+$133.01	71% 318-130 (448)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 95¢	$23.8K	$23.8K	-$125	72% 3507-1334 (4841)
Seutervoinen	Noavg 91.8¢	$20.5K	$21.0K	+$507.34	85% 311-57 (368)

Protruder

Invested

$459,999.95

Value

$475.0K

PnL

+$12.5K

Record

81%

22-5 (27)

0xB9d89bef8c935082F6a86355bD9667402D92275A-1751857844680

Invested

$306,950.06

Value

$321.2K

PnL

+$12.6K

Record

—

16-3 (19)

MiuMiuYan

Invested

$205,271.45

Value

$210.2K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

83%

19-4 (23)

MissaoComFlavio

Invested

$172,199

Value

$175.9K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

75%

233-77 (310)

betwick

Invested

$149,210.83

Value

$152.4K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

55%

352-292 (644)

Votei14Voude22

Invested

$122,580

Value

$124.5K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

78%

341-99 (440)

schizohedgehog

Invested

$120,892.9

Value

$123.4K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

80%

48-12 (60)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$110,857.08

Value

$114.0K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

Tigerofthehood

Invested

$105,825.67

Value

$111.2K

PnL

+$5.4K

Record

87%

179-26 (205)

JSG3

Invested

$105,800

Value

$109.3K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

58%

14-10 (24)

hideo

Invested

$83,650.59

Value

$92.3K

PnL

+$8.2K

Record

76%

253-81 (334)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$95,673.19

Value

$85.1K

PnL

$-10.6K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

yen4u

Invested

$55,110.57

Value

$57.2K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

86%

807-136 (943)

TheReturnOfDarthMaul

Invested

$60,000

Value

$56.7K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

63%

353-204 (557)

Andylow5CTR

Yes

Invested

$83,325.84

Value

$54.2K

PnL

$-33.6K

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Erasmus.

Invested

$44,787.4

Value

$48.3K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

65%

393-215 (608)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Invested

$41,619.89

Value

$42.6K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

GoriIIa

Invested

$37,603.09

Value

$41.8K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

73%

229-85 (314)

nonkenny90

Invested

$34,727.65

Value

$35.6K

PnL

+$870.73

Record

89%

4652-547 (5199)

FlyingPlaty

Invested

$32,020.94

Value

$33.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

98%

982-16 (998)

Dropper

Invested

$29,103.67

Value

$29.9K

PnL

+$786.59

Record

71%

1136-463 (1599)

Jellow2

Invested

$27,000

Value

$28.5K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

64%

299-169 (468)

Ryxon21

Invested

$25,000

Value

$25.3K

PnL

+$133.01

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$23,750

Value

$23.8K

PnL

-$125

Record

72%

3507-1334 (4841)

Seutervoinen

Invested

$20,523.71

Value

$21.0K

PnL

+$507.34

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 95%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

85 of 107 top traders (79%)22 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

85 traders

Top 2 hold 29%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 29% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 78% · 40

Aligned

sharpNo 97% · 64

Aligned

sniperYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 62% · 26

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 91% · 43

Aligned

Top 1000No 79% · 84

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.52

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.