Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 78¢ · $14K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$13.6K
$89
81.6¢ → 78¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
683h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KR KrackenSruster | Noavg 80¢ | $6.8K | $6.8K | +$39.58 | 66% 487-255 (742) |
GL Gladius7 | Noavg 83.5¢ | $4.4K | $4.2K | -$158.05 | 48% 90-98 (188) |
 DumplingBMFCTR | Yesavg 16.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$211.09 | 68% 1830-849 (2679) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 85.2¢ | $543.69 | $500.98 | -$42.7 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
PR Prinas | Noavg 82¢ | $200 | $195.12 | -$2.44 | 80% 304-77 (381) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 83.1¢ | $188.94 | $190.28 | +$1.34 | 36% 16072-28083 (44155) |
 randomWalkingShrimpCTR | Yesavg 15¢ | $90.08 | $117.11 | +$27.03 | 77% 1204-366 (1570) |
 PorxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.1¢ | $73.28 | $86.43 | +$13.15 | 66% 1482-769 (2251) |
Invested
$6,844.22
Value
$6.8K
PnL
+$39.58
Record
66%
487-255 (742)
Invested
$4,401
Value
$4.2K
PnL
-$158.05
Record
48%
90-98 (188)
DumplingBMFCTRInvested
$1,230.24
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$211.09
Record
68%
1830-849 (2679)
Invested
$543.69
Value
$500.98
PnL
-$42.7
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$200
Value
$195.12
PnL
-$2.44
Record
80%
304-77 (381)
Invested
$188.94
Value
$190.28
PnL
+$1.34
Record
36%
16072-28083 (44155)
randomWalkingShrimpCTRInvested
$90.08
Value
$117.11
PnL
+$27.03
Record
77%
1204-366 (1570)
PorxCTR<$100Invested
$73.28
Value
$86.43
PnL
+$13.15
Record
66%
1482-769 (2251)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.