Consensus PnL $110K · win rate 49% (52–54, n=106) · was PM monthly #855 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$110.3K
Record
52W / 54L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 106 settled
Batting Avg
40.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1856
Source
PM monthly #855
Trades
151
Markets
135
Volume
$1.9M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 4 on the consensus side (100%)- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $1.2M · now 98¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (90% of 42)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $160K · now 97¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (90% of 51)
- Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?No $16K · now 91¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
- Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?No $1.7K · now 94¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
Specialties
118 settled consensus markets · held side won 45% at an average entry of 44¢- Soccer
+9 pts
side won 48% of 61 · avg entry 38¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: MMA — held side won 48% of 33 at an average 54¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 24%(won 11% of 28)
- 30–50¢: 40%(won 45% of 47)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 70% of 30)
- 70¢ and up: 11%(won 62% of 13)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.