Trump out as President before 2027?

46 of 50 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 97¢ · $2.0M held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$2.0M

Combined PnL

$157.8K

Smart Money Entry

88.5¢ → 97¢

+10% since entry · 46 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

46 of 50 top traders (92%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No46 traders

Total Value$2.0M

Total Shares2,016,434

Combined PnL+$163.1K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares171,528

Combined PnL$-5.3K

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

46 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 15

Aligned

sharpNo 97% · 36

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 91% · 33

Aligned

Top 1000No 96% · 25

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SE SecondWindCapital	Noavg 85.4¢	$350.7K	$397.9K	+$47.6K	36% 25-45 (70)
elmcap2	Noavg 92.8¢	$346.4K	$362.3K	+$15.8K	89% 1665-205 (1870)
ON onekey02	Noavg 89.5¢	$239.4K	$259.3K	+$20.0K	98% 415-10 (425)
RE ReedUpdatee	Noavg 85¢	$17.4K	$160.1K	+$16.4K	48% 48-52 (100)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 86.6¢	$99.5K	$111.4K	+$11.9K	85% 605-108 (713)
AE Aeglos	Noavg 87.7¢	$87.8K	$96.9K	+$9.1K	82% 18-4 (22)
0X 0x1cDfEACf57b7591c1bc223a8147b3b022E9F1dB	Noavg 84.8¢	$63.7K	$72.9K	+$9.2K	— 4-0 (4)
AF afdafdafdafdafd	Noavg 93¢	$16.7K	$65.9K	+$7.2K	73% 196-73 (269)
FO forinnerpsandr1x11222	Noavg 84.2¢	$55.5K	$63.5K	+$8.0K	88% 212-28 (240)
tetrase	Noavg 90.2¢	$58.1K	$59.0K	+$960.42	61% 839-543 (1382)
BL BlackPeopleDontRecycle	Noavg 90¢	$30.2K	$32.5K	+$2.3K	77% 119-36 (155)
manekineko	Noavg 89¢	$27.9K	$29.1K	+$1.2K	84% 365-71 (436)
PM pmcb	Noavg 84.4¢	$25.2K	$29.1K	+$3.8K	91% 49-5 (54)
0X 0xbe044D601FBe89c9E87eACFa57d813A31F783C60-1767997097941	Noavg 89.7¢	$23.9K	$23.7K	+$1.5K	76% 145-47 (192)
IG IGORS	Noavg 95.1¢	$21.8K	$22.2K	+$294.32	— 10-1 (11)
allenzzz	Noavg 91.6¢	$18.4K	$19.4K	+$971.86	78% 125-36 (161)
wish-	Noavg 94.2¢	$15.3K	$15.6K	+$311.36	79% 1176-319 (1495)
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 86.4¢	$14.9K	$15.5K	+$637.9	77% 1408-416 (1824)
poorersob	Noavg 94.5¢	$13.6K	$13.9K	+$349.47	72% 1086-426 (1512)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 92.3¢	$11.6K	$12.7K	+$664.48	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
QM QMG-SCALAR	Noavg 92.1¢	$10.6K	$10.7K	+$94.2	75% 116-39 (155)
DEGENKHAN	Noavg 87.7¢	$9.3K	$9.7K	+$371.77	66% 1107-565 (1672)
BU bullmarketvibes	Noavg 92¢	$9.2K	$9.7K	+$495	97% 31-1 (32)
FA fastviking	Noavg 83¢	$9.0K	$9.7K	+$1.4K	69% 33-15 (48)
TH thoodr	Noavg 94.1¢	$7.6K	$7.7K	+$21.76	96% 631-24 (655)

SecondWindCapital

Invested

$350,731.14

Value

$397.9K

PnL

+$47.6K

Record

36%

25-45 (70)

elmcap2

Invested

$346,440.58

Value

$362.3K

PnL

+$15.8K

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

onekey02

Invested

$239,399.05

Value

$259.3K

PnL

+$20.0K

Record

98%

415-10 (425)

ReedUpdatee

Invested

$17,358.86

Value

$160.1K

PnL

+$16.4K

Record

48%

48-52 (100)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$99,466.52

Value

$111.4K

PnL

+$11.9K

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

Aeglos

Invested

$87,759.3

Value

$96.9K

PnL

+$9.1K

Record

82%

18-4 (22)

0x1cDfEACf57b7591c1bc223a8147b3b022E9F1dB

Invested

$63,654.12

Value

$72.9K

PnL

+$9.2K

Record

—

4-0 (4)

afdafdafdafdafd

Invested

$16,739.97

Value

$65.9K

PnL

+$7.2K

Record

73%

196-73 (269)

forinnerpsandr1x11222

Invested

$55,498.22

Value

$63.5K

PnL

+$8.0K

Record

88%

212-28 (240)

tetrase

Invested

$58,079.64

Value

$59.0K

PnL

+$960.42

Record

61%

839-543 (1382)

BlackPeopleDontRecycle

Invested

$30,213.75

Value

$32.5K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

77%

119-36 (155)

manekineko

Invested

$27,885.05

Value

$29.1K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

84%

365-71 (436)

pmcb

Invested

$25,224.42

Value

$29.1K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

91%

49-5 (54)

0xbe044D601FBe89c9E87eACFa57d813A31F783C60-1767997097941

Invested

$23,939.76

Value

$23.7K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

76%

145-47 (192)

IGORS

Invested

$21,756.79

Value

$22.2K

PnL

+$294.32

Record

—

10-1 (11)

allenzzz

Invested

$18,375.51

Value

$19.4K

PnL

+$971.86

Record

78%

125-36 (161)

wish-

Invested

$15,326.85

Value

$15.6K

PnL

+$311.36

Record

79%

1176-319 (1495)

QMG-CORE

Invested

$14,866.5

Value

$15.5K

PnL

+$637.9

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

poorersob

Invested

$13,567.73

Value

$13.9K

PnL

+$349.47

Record

72%

1086-426 (1512)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$11,553.83

Value

$12.7K

PnL

+$664.48

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

QMG-SCALAR

Invested

$10,643.72

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$94.2

Record

75%

116-39 (155)

DEGENKHAN

Invested

$9,332.34

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$371.77

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

bullmarketvibes

Invested

$9,200

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$495

Record

97%

31-1 (32)

fastviking

Invested

$9,037.01

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

69%

33-15 (48)

thoodr

Invested

$7,634.62

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$21.76

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

46 of 50 top traders (92%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

46 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 15

Aligned

sharpNo 97% · 36

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 91% · 33

Aligned

Top 1000No 96% · 25

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.