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8B
Consensus PnL $39K · win rate 78% (29–8, n=37) · was PM monthly #986 · holds 7 consensus positions
0x8b3689e5...703da393Polymarket
🎯Sharp🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$38.5K
Record
29W / 8L
Win Rate
78.0%
of 37 settled
Batting Avg
71.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#504
Source
PM monthly #986
Trades
70
Markets
55
Volume
$406.1K
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 7 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?No $20K · now 89¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (52% of 21)
- Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?No $7.9K · now 98¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (88% of 16)
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes $6.6K · now 99¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (91% of 47)
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $6.0K · now 40¢ · in at 37¢with the consensus (83% of 42)
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $4.7K · now 97¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (92% of 50)
- Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $426 · now 2¢ · in at 24¢with the consensus (90% of 20)
- Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes $98 · now 98¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (57% of 23)
Specialties
32 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 79¢- Elections
+7 pts
side won 86% of 29 · avg entry 80¢
ROI +9%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 50% of 4)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 100% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 50% of 2)
- 70¢ and up: 78%(won 96% of 25)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.