Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?

13 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 98¢ · $41K held · ends Nov 4

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$41.5K

Combined PnL

-$264.07

Smart Money Entry

94.5¢ → 97.7¢

+3% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 23 top traders (57%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$40.5K

Total Shares41,451

Combined PnL+$1.4K

No10 traders

Total Value$996.79

Total Shares44,672

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (12 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 71% · 7

Diverging

sharpYes 90% · 10

Aligned

ctrNo 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI Vilgefortz	Yesavg 97.7¢	$17.9K	$17.9K	-$10.41	71% 196-82 (278)
SirHarryOakes	Yesavg 90.5¢	$13.8K	$14.9K	+$1.1K	84% 215-41 (256)
DZ dzsibenaja	Yesavg 96.4¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$32.43	88% 171-24 (195)
CO cocococococo	Yesavg 97¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$10.8	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
VO Votei14Voude22	Yesavg 97.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0	78% 341-99 (440)
OraculumNobius	Yesavg 97.6¢	$976.38	$976	+$0.62	90% 5487-612 (6099)
nicoco89	Yesavg 74.2¢	$490.92	$649.89	+$158.97	65% 1075-583 (1658)
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 6.8¢	$1.5K	$517.89	-$982.65	47% 474-534 (1008)
Talophex	Yesavg 96¢	$398.88	$405.53	+$7.06	91% 929-95 (1024)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 96.2¢	$377.58	$356.37	+$2.07	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
ImJustKenCTR	Noavg 7.9¢	$636.14	$168.21	-$471.9	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR	Noavg 2.5¢	$155.87	$130.89	-$12.47	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
Valen9CTR	Noavg 3.5¢	$175	$105	-$57.5	60% 406-274 (680)
SC Scalpoor<$100	Yesavg 91¢	$91	$97.6	+$6.7	83% 30-6 (36)
4751346<$100	Yesavg 97.6¢	$63.44	$63.5	+$0.06	72% 1257-483 (1740)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 5.1¢	$90.7	$41.23	-$49.47	51% 2516-2391 (4907)
Ryxon21<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$25.41	$32.21	+$6.83	71% 318-130 (448)
Rex416CTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$50	$21	-$27	57% 2537-1923 (4460)
IM immanuelcan	Yesavg 79¢	$136.94	$14.14	+$43.7	53% 906-789 (1695)
probabilityCTR<$100	Noavg 4¢	$11.22	$5.89	-$4.77	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Noavg 2.1¢	$3.88	$5.34	-$0.45	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$10.41	$1.23	-$9.18	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Noavg 7.5¢	$0.29	$0.1	-$0.18	77% 8889-2658 (11547)

Vilgefortz

Yes

Invested

$17,881.59

Value

$17.9K

PnL

-$10.41

Record

71%

196-82 (278)

SirHarryOakes

Yes

Invested

$13,804.03

Value

$14.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

84%

215-41 (256)

dzsibenaja

Yes

Invested

$2,374.9

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$32.43

Record

88%

171-24 (195)

cocococococo

Yes

Invested

$1,496.37

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$10.8

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

Votei14Voude22

Yes

Invested

$1,202

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

78%

341-99 (440)

OraculumNobius

Yes

Invested

$976.38

Value

$976

PnL

+$0.62

Record

90%

5487-612 (6099)

nicoco89

Yes

Invested

$490.92

Value

$649.89

PnL

+$158.97

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$1,500.54

Value

$517.89

PnL

-$982.65

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

Talophex

Yes

Invested

$398.88

Value

$405.53

PnL

+$7.06

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$377.58

Value

$356.37

PnL

+$2.07

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

ImJustKenCTR

Invested

$636.14

Value

$168.21

PnL

-$471.9

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR

Invested

$155.87

Value

$130.89

PnL

-$12.47

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

Valen9CTR

Invested

$175

Value

$105

PnL

-$57.5

Record

60%

406-274 (680)

Scalpoor<$100

Yes

Invested

$91

Value

$97.6

PnL

+$6.7

Record

83%

30-6 (36)

4751346<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.44

Value

$63.5

PnL

+$0.06

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$90.7

Value

$41.23

PnL

-$49.47

Record

51%

2516-2391 (4907)

Ryxon21<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.41

Value

$32.21

PnL

+$6.83

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

Rex416CTR<$100

Invested

$50

Value

$21

PnL

-$27

Record

57%

2537-1923 (4460)

immanuelcan

Yes

Invested

$136.94

Value

$14.14

PnL

+$43.7

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

probabilityCTR<$100

Invested

$11.22

Value

$5.89

PnL

-$4.77

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Invested

$3.88

Value

$5.34

PnL

-$0.45

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Invested

$10.41

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$9.18

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

HourglassCTR<$100

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.18

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 23 top traders (57%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (12 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 71% · 7

Diverging

sharpYes 90% · 10

Aligned

ctrNo 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.