Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

50 of 54 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 97¢ · $1.1M held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 93%

Total Value

$1.1M

Combined PnL

$120.3K

Smart Money Entry

87.4¢ → 97.5¢

+11% since entry · 48 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

50 of 54 top traders (93%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No50 traders

Total Value$1.1M

Total Shares1,154,274

Combined PnL+$120.4K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$132.39

Total Shares5,192

Combined PnL-$64.77

No — 93%Yes — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

50 traders

Top 2 hold 35%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 35% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 95% · 19

Aligned

sharpNo 97% · 29

Aligned

ctrNo 91% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 93% · 40

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 24

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA Macks22	Noavg 80¢	$164.1K	$199.9K	+$35.8K	78% 91-25 (116)
elmcap2	Noavg 88.5¢	$176.2K	$194.0K	+$17.9K	89% 1665-205 (1870)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 91.9¢	$134.1K	$142.2K	+$8.1K	85% 605-108 (713)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04	Noavg 89.3¢	$93.7K	$92.5K	+$7.5K	88% 2229-292 (2521)
TE TerreMoto	Noavg 85.2¢	$81.9K	$89.2K	+$11.2K	80% 168-42 (210)
KE keribit	Noavg 91.6¢	$91.1K	$74.6K	+$5.5K	77% 343-103 (446)
mombil	No	$53.6K	$53.6K	+$8.5K	55% 1191-966 (2157)
57 57284910	Noavg 96.7¢	$41.1K	$41.4K	+$302.82	100% 23-0 (23)
0X 0x333e8f4fb0353ef31cf1a7d00789e1319381369b	Noavg 91.7¢	$34.2K	$36.4K	+$2.1K	97% 140-4 (144)
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul	Noavg 88.7¢	$29.3K	$32.2K	+$2.9K	63% 353-204 (557)
Imbafer	Noavg 81.7¢	$21.3K	$24.4K	+$3.9K	56% 238-189 (427)
Qualitative	Noavg 86.1¢	$19.8K	$21.6K	+$2.5K	58% 1153-825 (1978)
0X 0x79a009b7C0336273Bf3Bc7E1D940aD3e2152B9	Noavg 87.9¢	$48.5K	$14.0K	+$3.0K	70% 160-67 (227)
vacoolaaa	Noavg 82.5¢	$10.3K	$12.2K	+$1.9K	68% 124-59 (183)
VO vovatoxic	Noavg 82.9¢	$10.2K	$12.0K	+$1.8K	49% 70-74 (144)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 94.2¢	$5.5K	$11.2K	+$671.31	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
Ahpo	Noavg 93.3¢	$9.8K	$9.8K	-$4.99	87% 1621-251 (1872)
0xheavy888	Noavg 81¢	$8.1K	$9.7K	+$1.6K	55% 7314-5881 (13195)
tetrase	Noavg 91.7¢	$8.0K	$8.0K	+$38.66	61% 839-543 (1382)
0X 0xbe044D601FBe89c9E87eACFa57d813A31F783C60-1767997097941	Noavg 84.9¢	$6.9K	$7.8K	+$1.0K	76% 145-47 (192)
Moond	Noavg 84.9¢	$6.8K	$7.8K	+$1.0K	69% 1137-513 (1650)
AP apmt	No	$6.5K	$6.5K	+$972.09	74% 64-22 (86)
SC Scalpoor	Noavg 95.2¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$109.24	83% 30-6 (36)
CR Crock95	Noavg 80¢	$3.2K	$3.9K	+$698	57% 255-194 (449)
Slowroasted	Noavg 89¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$211.25	88% 1990-279 (2269)

Macks22

Invested

$164,129.18

Value

$199.9K

PnL

+$35.8K

Record

78%

91-25 (116)

elmcap2

Invested

$176,183.75

Value

$194.0K

PnL

+$17.9K

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$134,093.01

Value

$142.2K

PnL

+$8.1K

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04

Invested

$93,662.43

Value

$92.5K

PnL

+$7.5K

Record

88%

2229-292 (2521)

TerreMoto

Invested

$81,941.65

Value

$89.2K

PnL

+$11.2K

Record

80%

168-42 (210)

keribit

Invested

$91,070.38

Value

$74.6K

PnL

+$5.5K

Record

77%

343-103 (446)

mombil

Invested

$53,625

Value

$53.6K

PnL

+$8.5K

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

57284910

Invested

$41,052.26

Value

$41.4K

PnL

+$302.82

Record

100%

23-0 (23)

0x333e8f4fb0353ef31cf1a7d00789e1319381369b

Invested

$34,244.24

Value

$36.4K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

97%

140-4 (144)

TheReturnOfDarthMaul

Invested

$29,271

Value

$32.2K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

63%

353-204 (557)

Imbafer

Invested

$21,283.98

Value

$24.4K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

56%

238-189 (427)

Qualitative

Invested

$19,843.78

Value

$21.6K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

58%

1153-825 (1978)

0x79a009b7C0336273Bf3Bc7E1D940aD3e2152B9

Invested

$48,504.65

Value

$14.0K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

70%

160-67 (227)

vacoolaaa

Invested

$10,318.17

Value

$12.2K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

68%

124-59 (183)

vovatoxic

Invested

$10,206.14

Value

$12.0K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

49%

70-74 (144)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$5,530.69

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$671.31

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

Ahpo

Invested

$9,754.99

Value

$9.8K

PnL

-$4.99

Record

87%

1621-251 (1872)

0xheavy888

Invested

$8,099.85

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

55%

7314-5881 (13195)

tetrase

Invested

$8,008.72

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$38.66

Record

61%

839-543 (1382)

0xbe044D601FBe89c9E87eACFa57d813A31F783C60-1767997097941

Invested

$6,860.57

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

76%

145-47 (192)

Moond

Invested

$6,790

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

69%

1137-513 (1650)

apmt

Invested

$6,524.88

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$972.09

Record

74%

64-22 (86)

Scalpoor

Invested

$4,612.47

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$109.24

Record

83%

30-6 (36)

Crock95

Invested

$3,200

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$698

Record

57%

255-194 (449)

Slowroasted

Invested

$2,225

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$211.25

Record

88%

1990-279 (2269)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

50 of 54 top traders (93%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

50 traders

Top 2 hold 35%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 35% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 95% · 19

Aligned

sharpNo 97% · 29

Aligned

ctrNo 91% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 93% · 40

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 24

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.