Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

11 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (52%) · No at 89¢ · $75K held · ends Apr 19, 2027

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Mon, Apr 19, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 52%

Total Value

$74.9K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

87.3¢ → 88.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 21 top traders (52%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$72.3K

Total Shares82,117

Combined PnL+$135.73

Yes10 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares21,824

Combined PnL+$1.1K

No — 52%Yes — 48%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

52% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (10 on No) and the top 1000 (12 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Noavg 87.9¢	$40.2K	$40.3K	-$183.6	93% 875-63 (938)
SC Scalpoor	Noavg 88.4¢	$20.7K	$20.5K	-$288.54	83% 30-6 (36)
archaic	Noavg 89.8¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$70.33	85% 1906-339 (2245)
Zaratustra	No	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$35.74	62% 351-214 (565)
Gohst	Noavg 37¢	$480	$1.1K	+$655.13	49% 738-770 (1508)
4751346	Noavg 89¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$18	72% 1257-483 (1740)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 87.5¢	$885	$880	-$5	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
TBill1CTR	Yesavg 11.8¢	$590	$600	+$35	45% 154-188 (342)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$36.03	$531.19	+$495.1	47% 83-94 (177)
SirHarryOakes	Noavg 86.8¢	$504.56	$511.55	+$9.9	84% 215-41 (256)
ElZorro69CTR	Yesavg 11¢	$405.86	$442.75	+$55.34	— 1-0 (1)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 6.5¢	$6.5	$379.55	+$180.5	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
PaddyAlpha	Noavg 88¢	$367.28	$365.2	-$2.08	59% 986-684 (1670)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 10.2¢	$273.26	$319.92	+$59.99	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.15	$192.86	+$188.35	39% 1780-2832 (4612)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Noavg 88¢	$176	$177	+$1	69% 156-69 (225)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.7¢	$13.79	$77.92	+$64.13	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
Donny.T<$100	Noavg 85.6¢	$68.9	$70.41	+$1.51	72% 484-187 (671)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$24	$23	-$1	42% 5283-7233 (12516)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$18	$18	+$17.58	7% 14-187 (201)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.26	$6.17	+$5.91	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

Momo63

Invested

$40,242.8

Value

$40.3K

PnL

-$183.6

Record

93%

875-63 (938)

Scalpoor

Invested

$20,745.62

Value

$20.5K

PnL

-$288.54

Record

83%

30-6 (36)

archaic

Invested

$4,747.63

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$70.33

Record

85%

1906-339 (2245)

Zaratustra

Invested

$2,640

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$35.74

Record

62%

351-214 (565)

Gohst

Invested

$480

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$655.13

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

4751346

Invested

$1,068

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$18

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$885

Value

$880

PnL

-$5

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

TBill1CTR

Yes

Invested

$590

Value

$600

PnL

+$35

Record

45%

154-188 (342)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Yes

Invested

$36.03

Value

$531.19

PnL

+$495.1

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

SirHarryOakes

Invested

$504.56

Value

$511.55

PnL

+$9.9

Record

84%

215-41 (256)

ElZorro69CTR

Yes

Invested

$405.86

Value

$442.75

PnL

+$55.34

Record

—

1-0 (1)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$6.5

Value

$379.55

PnL

+$180.5

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

PaddyAlpha

Invested

$367.28

Value

$365.2

PnL

-$2.08

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$273.26

Value

$319.92

PnL

+$59.99

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$192.86

PnL

+$188.35

Record

39%

1780-2832 (4612)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Invested

$176

Value

$177

PnL

+$1

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.79

Value

$77.92

PnL

+$64.13

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

Donny.T<$100

Invested

$68.9

Value

$70.41

PnL

+$1.51

Record

72%

484-187 (671)

lissartterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24

Value

$23

PnL

-$1

Record

42%

5283-7233 (12516)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18

Value

$18

PnL

+$17.58

Record

14-187 (201)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$6.17

PnL

+$5.91

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 21 top traders (52%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

52% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (10 on No) and the top 1000 (12 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.9%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.