Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
43 of 47 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (91%) · Yes at 99¢ · $584K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
47
Yes 91%
$583.9K
$49.7K
89.7¢ → 98.5¢
+10% since entry · 43 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- $100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
43 of 47 top traders (91%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-1 pts consensus
Breadth
43 traders
Top 2 hold 43%
Freshness
Late
4874h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
159 consensus flips
91% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 elmcap2 | Yesavg 97.2¢ | $213.6K | $210.3K | +$2.6K | 89% 1665-205 (1870) |
 Seutervoinen | Yesavg 94¢ | $37.0K | $38.7K | +$1.7K | 85% 311-57 (368) |
WA wan123 | Yesavg 50.3¢ | $18.1K | $35.3K | +$17.3K | 39% 196-304 (500) |
TH thoodr | Yesavg 94.8¢ | $33.7K | $35.0K | +$1.2K | 96% 631-24 (655) |
 AngryRhino | Yesavg 94.5¢ | $32.0K | $34.1K | +$2.1K | 69% 133-59 (192) |
CH chriszyy3 | Yesavg 93.2¢ | $20.7K | $21.8K | +$1.2K | 94% 242-16 (258) |
 Kickstand7 | Yesavg 34.9¢ | $7.1K | $20.1K | +$13.0K | 61% 496-318 (814) |
 studmuffin6969 | Yesavg 88¢ | $16.0K | $17.6K | +$1.6K | 59% 1027-717 (1744) |
QM QMG-CORE | Yesavg 97.8¢ | $15.8K | $15.9K | +$87.26 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
 Tigerofthehood | Yesavg 95.6¢ | $11.9K | $12.1K | +$173.45 | 87% 179-26 (205) |
 gopfan2 | Yesavg 94¢ | $11.5K | $12.0K | +$550.14 | 51% 901-875 (1776) |
VI Vilgefortz | Yesavg 97.2¢ | $11.8K | $11.9K | +$147.45 | 71% 196-82 (278) |
PI pilimili | Yesavg 97.8¢ | $10.7K | $10.7K | +$70.98 | 62% 151-91 (242) |
 Donny.T | Yesavg 93¢ | $9.0K | $9.5K | +$525.86 | 72% 484-187 (671) |
 TBill1 | Yesavg 97.6¢ | $7.5K | $7.6K | +$23.08 | 45% 154-188 (342) |
SC Scalpoor | Yesavg 95.2¢ | $6.4K | $6.6K | +$209.4 | 83% 30-6 (36) |
QM QMG-SCALAR | Yesavg 97.6¢ | $5.9K | $6.0K | +$45.42 | 75% 116-39 (155) |
 wish- | Yesavg 96.5¢ | $5.8K | $5.9K | +$115.69 | 79% 1176-319 (1495) |
FL flawfence | Yesavg 72.7¢ | $4.3K | $5.8K | +$1.5K | 46% 271-319 (590) |
SK skibabiba | Yesavg 88.2¢ | $5.0K | $5.6K | +$584.28 | 87% 95-14 (109) |
HE HerrieDavis | Yesavg 91¢ | $4.8K | $5.0K | +$258.48 | 36% 2085-3721 (5806) |
 JJo | Yesavg 96.6¢ | $4.9K | $4.9K | +$60.45 | 66% 944-496 (1440) |
 PMTraderAdam | Yesavg 97.4¢ | $4.9K | $4.9K | +$52.5 | 77% 830-249 (1079) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yesavg 70.6¢ | $4.8K | $4.9K | +$112.24 | 56% 15371-11922 (27293) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Yesavg 95.9¢ | $1.5K | $4.2K | +$105.36 | 72% 6827-2621 (9448) |
elmcap2Invested
$213,633.67
Value
$210.3K
PnL
+$2.6K
Record
89%
1665-205 (1870)
SeutervoinenInvested
$37,011.67
Value
$38.7K
PnL
+$1.7K
Record
85%
311-57 (368)
Invested
$18,070.1
Value
$35.3K
PnL
+$17.3K
Record
39%
196-304 (500)
Invested
$33,748.51
Value
$35.0K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
96%
631-24 (655)
AngryRhinoInvested
$32,013.53
Value
$34.1K
PnL
+$2.1K
Record
69%
133-59 (192)
Invested
$20,710.9
Value
$21.8K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
94%
242-16 (258)
Kickstand7Invested
$7,136.7
Value
$20.1K
PnL
+$13.0K
Record
61%
496-318 (814)
studmuffin6969Invested
$15,974.41
Value
$17.6K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
59%
1027-717 (1744)
Invested
$15,799.87
Value
$15.9K
PnL
+$87.26
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
TigerofthehoodInvested
$11,916.57
Value
$12.1K
PnL
+$173.45
Record
87%
179-26 (205)
gopfan2Invested
$11,490.67
Value
$12.0K
PnL
+$550.14
Record
51%
901-875 (1776)
Invested
$11,765.49
Value
$11.9K
PnL
+$147.45
Record
71%
196-82 (278)
Invested
$10,679.28
Value
$10.7K
PnL
+$70.98
Record
62%
151-91 (242)
Donny.TInvested
$8,953.56
Value
$9.5K
PnL
+$525.86
Record
72%
484-187 (671)
TBill1Invested
$7,535.38
Value
$7.6K
PnL
+$23.08
Record
45%
154-188 (342)
Invested
$6,391.08
Value
$6.6K
PnL
+$209.4
Record
83%
30-6 (36)
Invested
$5,918
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$45.42
Record
75%
116-39 (155)
wish-Invested
$5,791.49
Value
$5.9K
PnL
+$115.69
Record
79%
1176-319 (1495)
Invested
$4,281.91
Value
$5.8K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
46%
271-319 (590)
Invested
$5,027.4
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$584.28
Record
87%
95-14 (109)
Invested
$4,761.12
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$258.48
Record
36%
2085-3721 (5806)
JJoInvested
$4,854.56
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$60.45
Record
66%
944-496 (1440)
PMTraderAdamInvested
$4,870
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$52.5
Record
77%
830-249 (1079)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$4,791.21
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$112.24
Record
56%
15371-11922 (27293)
Invested
$1,515.22
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$105.36
Record
72%
6827-2621 (9448)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.