Consensus PnL $586K · win rate 51% (70–66, n=136) · PM monthly #723 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$586.0K
Record
70W / 66L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 136 settled
Batting Avg
35.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1155
Source
PM monthly #723
Record (90 d)
18/26 · 69%
Trades
0
Markets
182
Volume
$2.0M
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Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 3 on the consensus side (67%)- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 2 WinnerT1 $90K · now 100¢ · in at 40¢with the consensus (53% of 116)
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 3 WinnerT1 $4.5K · now 42¢ · in at 40¢with the consensus (49% of 91)
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 1 WinnerT1 $1 · now 0¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (Bilibili Gaming)
Specialties
132 settled consensus markets · held side won 55% at an average entry of 46¢- Esports
+7 pts
side won 54% of 130 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +17%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 19%(won 32% of 25)
- 30–50¢: 38%(won 50% of 50)
- 50–70¢: 36%(won 66% of 47)
- 70¢ and up: 8%(won 80% of 10)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.