LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 2 Winner

63 of 116 top Polymarket traders hold T1 (54%) · T1 at 100¢ · $2.4M held · ends Nov 9

Bilibili Gaming<1¢T1>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

116

T1 54%

Total Value

$2.4M

Combined PnL

$-701.1K

Smart Money Entry

73.9¢ → 100¢

+35% since entry · 63 traders

Research grade

NeutralT1 at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

63 of 116 top traders (54%)53 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bilibili Gaming0%

T1100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

T163 traders

Total Value$2.2M

Total Shares2,310,305

Combined PnL+$481.5K

Bilibili Gaming53 traders

Total Value$199.6K

Total Shares2,645,553

Combined PnL$-1.2M

T1 — 54%Bilibili Gaming — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
S- S-Works	T1avg 99.9¢	$862.4K	$862.9K	+$431.65	69% 3000-1369 (4369)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	T1avg 40¢	$139.8K	$316.3K	+$176.4K	53% 6645-5939 (12584)
Malfunction.	T1avg 99.6¢	$146.5K	$146.9K	+$468.51	96% 14642-642 (15284)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	T1avg 40.6¢	$45.1K	$111.1K	+$65.9K	54% 1455-1257 (2712)
TR trgparking	T1avg 99.9¢	$111.4K	$100.0K	+$17.74	57% 1223-925 (2148)
TE TeGeeLP	T1avg 40.4¢	$36.6K	$90.0K	+$53.4K	53% 83-75 (158)
CUTJALENHURTS	T1avg 40.4¢	$24.2K	$59.0K	+$34.8K	51% 6917-6562 (13479)
LI LinkE5	T1avg 41¢	$33.3K	$55.4K	+$22.1K	47% 770-855 (1625)
Sunshine.SmileCTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 57.8¢	$55.7K	$47.3K	$-8.5K	58% 2040-1486 (3526)
25 254321758	T1avg 99.8¢	$40.0K	$40.0K	+$43.78	68% 475-220 (695)
JA Ja888	T1avg 85.5¢	$41.4K	$40.0K	+$5.1K	69% 68-30 (98)
BR brobrobrobrobro	T1avg 55.3¢	$35.4K	$36.9K	+$1.5K	62% 264-161 (425)
TA takeormake	T1avg 69.9¢	$31.7K	$36.9K	+$5.2K	52% 5562-5184 (10746)
PV pvc975	T1avg 99.9¢	$36.0K	$36.0K	+$18	98% 20235-401 (20636)
GA gaclfz	T1avg 65.1¢	$19.9K	$30.4K	+$10.5K	74% 1375-488 (1863)
FK fkALG2FalconsTES	T1avg 38.8¢	$11.6K	$29.5K	+$17.9K	58% 2201-1607 (3808)
TH Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlCTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 59.7¢	$1.1M	$27.7K	$-1.1M	54% 27-23 (50)
0xheavy888CTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 60.5¢	$50.5K	$27.4K	$-23.0K	56% 8780-6967 (15747)
DamwonChampions2026CTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 59.4¢	$45.2K	$25.4K	$-19.7K	53% 2411-2138 (4549)
minjiCTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 60.2¢	$46.1K	$23.8K	$-22.3K	52% 2087-1917 (4004)
CA calculate10	T1avg 85¢	$20.2K	$23.7K	+$3.6K	54% 1381-1196 (2577)
-Pain	T1avg 38.3¢	$11.1K	$23.2K	+$12.1K	55% 430-345 (775)
ZY Zywoo123	T1avg 42.5¢	$18.7K	$22.4K	+$3.7K	52% 1007-928 (1935)
HomelessnHoelessCTR	Bilibili Gamingavg 58.5¢	$16.8K	$14.0K	$-2.7K	51% 133-128 (261)
LU luckycat888888	T1avg 43¢	$5.6K	$12.3K	+$6.7K	49% 105-110 (215)

S-

S-Works

Invested

$862,446.21

Value

$862.9K

PnL

+$431.65

Record

69%

3000-1369 (4369)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Invested

$139,829.01

Value

$316.3K

PnL

+$176.4K

Record

53%

6645-5939 (12584)

Malfunction.

Invested

$146,472.61

Value

$146.9K

PnL

+$468.51

Record

96%

14642-642 (15284)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Invested

$45,110.65

Value

$111.1K

PnL

+$65.9K

Record

54%

1455-1257 (2712)

trgparking

Invested

$111,441.18

Value

$100.0K

PnL

+$17.74

Record

57%

1223-925 (2148)

TeGeeLP

Invested

$36,620.31

Value

$90.0K

PnL

+$53.4K

Record

53%

83-75 (158)

CUTJALENHURTS

Invested

$24,249.96

Value

$59.0K

PnL

+$34.8K

Record

51%

6917-6562 (13479)

LinkE5

Invested

$33,323.42

Value

$55.4K

PnL

+$22.1K

Record

47%

770-855 (1625)

Sunshine.SmileCTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$55,741.62

Value

$47.3K

PnL

$-8.5K

Record

58%

2040-1486 (3526)

254321758

Invested

$40,000.2

Value

$40.0K

PnL

+$43.78

Record

68%

475-220 (695)

Ja888

Invested

$41,430.41

Value

$40.0K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

69%

68-30 (98)

brobrobrobrobro

Invested

$35,369.99

Value

$36.9K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

62%

264-161 (425)

takeormake

Invested

$31,683.27

Value

$36.9K

PnL

+$5.2K

Record

52%

5562-5184 (10746)

pvc975

Invested

$35,964

Value

$36.0K

PnL

+$18

Record

98%

20235-401 (20636)

gaclfz

Invested

$19,929.3

Value

$30.4K

PnL

+$10.5K

Record

74%

1375-488 (1863)

fkALG2FalconsTES

Invested

$11,639.87

Value

$29.5K

PnL

+$17.9K

Record

58%

2201-1607 (3808)

Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlCTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$1,100,911.38

Value

$27.7K

PnL

$-1.1M

Record

54%

27-23 (50)

0xheavy888CTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$50,475.51

Value

$27.4K

PnL

$-23.0K

Record

56%

8780-6967 (15747)

DamwonChampions2026CTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$45,164.01

Value

$25.4K

PnL

$-19.7K

Record

53%

2411-2138 (4549)

minjiCTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$46,134.26

Value

$23.8K

PnL

$-22.3K

Record

52%

2087-1917 (4004)

calculate10

Invested

$20,177.97

Value

$23.7K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

54%

1381-1196 (2577)

-Pain

Invested

$11,119.9

Value

$23.2K

PnL

+$12.1K

Record

55%

430-345 (775)

Zywoo123

Invested

$18,651.8

Value

$22.4K

PnL

+$3.7K

Record

52%

1007-928 (1935)

HomelessnHoelessCTR

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$16,768.16

Value

$14.0K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

51%

133-128 (261)

luckycat888888

Invested

$5,590

Value

$12.3K

PnL

+$6.7K

Record

49%

105-110 (215)

Research grade

NeutralT1 at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

63 of 116 top traders (54%)53 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that T1 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.