Consensus PnL $49K · win rate 100% (1–0, n=1) · PM monthly #37 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$48.7K
Record
1W / 0L
Win Rate
100.0%
of 1 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#55
Source
PM monthly #37 + pinned
Trades
26
Markets
8
Volume
$605.6K
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 6 on the consensus side (83%)- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $257K · now 72¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $181K · now 96¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $146K · now 97¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (90% of 41)
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $63K · now 81¢ · in at 80¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $25K · now 73¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (77% of 78)
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $14K · now 72¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (67% of 67)
Specialties
1 settled consensus market · held side won 100% at an average entry of 91¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where TeamA's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 100%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.