Consensus PnL $7.1K · win rate 62% (201–121, n=322) · was PM monthly #725 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$7.1K
Record
201W / 121L
Win Rate
62.0%
of 322 settled
Batting Avg
25.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1074
Source
PM monthly #725
Trades
213
Markets
426
Volume
$489.9K
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $920 · now 66¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (68% of 131)
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $596 · now 6¢ · in at 7¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
252 settled consensus markets · held side won 67% at an average entry of 52¢- Mentions
+39 pts
side won 100% of 17 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +63%
- NFL
+20 pts
side won 71% of 104 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +17%
- Tech
+29 pts
side won 95% of 20 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +40%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 48% of 44 at an average 51¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 29%(won 19% of 74)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 59% of 41)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 93% of 43)
- 70¢ and up: 37%(won 98% of 94)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.