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09
Consensus PnL $68K · win rate 57% (12–9, n=21) · PM monthly #710 · holds 4 consensus positions
0x0947a002...cae2c1c9Polymarket
⚖️Arb🔄Contrarian🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$68.3K
Record
12W / 9L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 21 settled
Batting Avg
36.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1365
Source
PM monthly #710
Trades
2,511
Markets
183
Volume
$2.8M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 4 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $950 · now 95¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?Yes $122 · now 3¢ · in at 13¢with the consensus (71% of 14)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?Yes $56 · now 1¢ · in at 5¢with the consensus (78% of 9)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?Yes $38 · now 1¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
Specialties
43 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 76¢- Esports
+24 pts
side won 100% of 42 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +1%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 100% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 33%(won 100% of 14)
- 70¢ and up: 63%(won 100% of 27)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.