Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 10 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 3.0¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$-2.1K

Smart Money Entry

7.9¢ → 3¢

-61% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$819.71

Total Shares845

Combined PnL+$28.19

Yes10 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares44,016

Combined PnL$-2.1K

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

24 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lissartter	Noavg 93.7¢	$524.54	$542.35	+$17.81	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
XenyCTR	Yesavg 2.5¢	$306.33	$370.41	+$64.67	60% 978-662 (1640)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR	Yesavg 9.3¢	$973.61	$312.41	-$661.2	50% 415-417 (832)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 10.5¢	$787.5	$228.75	-$558.75	53% 3037-2716 (5753)
0X 0x963137a0BA0B02EBf6F37710023Cc1B0303289A1-1764031525036	Noavg 97.4¢	$146.07	$145.42	-$0.72	82% 234-52 (286)
DragontreeCTR	Yesavg 11.8¢	$562.8	$145.04	-$417.75	58% 1250-888 (2138)
US Username2133CTR	Yesavg 12.8¢	$100.34	$122	-$377.46	58% 96-70 (166)
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR	Yesavg 3.9¢	$124.2	$92.05	-$24.7	54% 229-195 (424)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 88.3¢	$80.77	$83.39	+$7.33	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
viniiCTR	Yesavg 10¢	$210.15	$63.36	-$146.79	74% 2792-1004 (3796)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 87.4¢	$44.77	$48.55	+$3.78	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
SB sbimbgCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$16.56	$6.32	-$10.25	70% 3189-1369 (4558)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$2.39	$1.74	-$0.65	39% 175-269 (444)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.5¢	$1.59	$0.78	-$0.81	50% 357-357 (714)

lissartter

Invested

$524.54

Value

$542.35

PnL

+$17.81

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

XenyCTR

Yes

Invested

$306.33

Value

$370.41

PnL

+$64.67

Record

60%

978-662 (1640)

Contentious-DinnerdateCTR

Yes

Invested

$973.61

Value

$312.41

PnL

-$661.2

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$787.5

Value

$228.75

PnL

-$558.75

Record

53%

3037-2716 (5753)

0x963137a0BA0B02EBf6F37710023Cc1B0303289A1-1764031525036

Invested

$146.07

Value

$145.42

PnL

-$0.72

Record

82%

234-52 (286)

DragontreeCTR

Yes

Invested

$562.8

Value

$145.04

PnL

-$417.75

Record

58%

1250-888 (2138)

Username2133CTR

Yes

Invested

$100.34

Value

$122

PnL

-$377.46

Record

58%

96-70 (166)

Dimpled-FoalCTR

Yes

Invested

$124.2

Value

$92.05

PnL

-$24.7

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$80.77

Value

$83.39

PnL

+$7.33

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

viniiCTR

Yes

Invested

$210.15

Value

$63.36

PnL

-$146.79

Record

74%

2792-1004 (3796)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$44.77

Value

$48.55

PnL

+$3.78

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

sbimbgCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.56

Value

$6.32

PnL

-$10.25

Record

70%

3189-1369 (4558)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.39

Value

$1.74

PnL

-$0.65

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.59

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$0.81

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 14 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

24 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.2%

3.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2277.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

2377.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.