Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 0.9¢ · $237 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$236.5
-$173.63
4.4¢ → 0.9¢
-78% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
9 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $89.6 | $85.79 | +$0.77 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
BU BurstedBubble<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $46.92 | $50.54 | +$3.6 | — 4-5 (9) |
HO Hourglass<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $49.19 | $49.56 | +$0.37 | 77% 8889-2658 (11547) |
US Username2133CTR | Yesavg 3.5¢ | $139.65 | $38 | -$101.95 | 58% 96-70 (166) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.4¢ | $85.95 | $10.99 | -$74.96 | 74% 2792-1004 (3796) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $2.86 | $1.58 | -$1.28 | 39% 175-269 (444) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $0.21 | $0.04 | -$0.17 | 50% 357-357 (714) |
Invested
$89.6
Value
$85.79
PnL
+$0.77
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$46.92
Value
$50.54
PnL
+$3.6
Record
—
4-5 (9)
Invested
$49.19
Value
$49.56
PnL
+$0.37
Record
77%
8889-2658 (11547)
Invested
$139.65
Value
$38
PnL
-$101.95
Record
58%
96-70 (166)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$85.95
Value
$10.99
PnL
-$74.96
Record
74%
2792-1004 (3796)
Invested
$2.86
Value
$1.58
PnL
-$1.28
Record
39%
175-269 (444)
Invested
$0.21
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$0.17
Record
50%
357-357 (714)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.