Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 1.5¢ · $482 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$482.04

Combined PnL

-$220.68

Smart Money Entry

2.5¢ → 1.5¢

-42% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$335.69

Total Shares23,151

Combined PnL-$221.21

No2 traders

Total Value$146.34

Total Shares148

Combined PnL+$0.53

Yes — 78%No — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

25 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XenyCTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$237.68	$226.06	-$10.59	60% 978-662 (1640)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$96.65	$97	+$0.36	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
US Username2133CTR	Yesavg 4.9¢	$128.18	$55.89	-$110.67	58% 96-70 (166)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$49.16	$49.34	+$0.18	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
viniiCTR	Yesavg 5.3¢	$120.74	$32.9	-$87.83	74% 2792-1004 (3796)
DragontreeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$10.75	$14.17	+$3.42	58% 1250-888 (2138)
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$18.77	$5.18	-$13.59	54% 229-195 (424)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$2.35	$1.23	-$1.13	39% 175-269 (444)
smellyEllieCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$1.1	$0.27	-$0.83	50% 970-988 (1958)

XenyCTR

Yes

Invested

$237.68

Value

$226.06

PnL

-$10.59

Record

60%

978-662 (1640)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$96.65

Value

$97

PnL

+$0.36

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Username2133CTR

Yes

Invested

$128.18

Value

$55.89

PnL

-$110.67

Record

58%

96-70 (166)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$49.16

Value

$49.34

PnL

+$0.18

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

viniiCTR

Yes

Invested

$120.74

Value

$32.9

PnL

-$87.83

Record

74%

2792-1004 (3796)

DragontreeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.75

Value

$14.17

PnL

+$3.42

Record

58%

1250-888 (2138)

Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.77

Value

$5.18

PnL

-$13.59

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.35

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$1.13

Record

39%

175-269 (444)

smellyEllieCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$0.83

Record

50%

970-988 (1958)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

25 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.5%

1.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3828.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

3928.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.