Consensus PnL $2.8K · win rate 98% (1311–32, n=1343) · was PM monthly #737 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$2.8K
Record
1311W / 32L
Win Rate
98.0%
of 1343 settled
Batting Avg
60.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#98
Source
PM monthly #737
Trades
231
Markets
1,356
Volume
$1.5M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 4 on the consensus side (75%)- Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Yes $58K · now 97¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (67% of 15)
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?No $22K · now 96¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (35% of 20)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?No $2.5K · now 94¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (56% of 27)
- Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?No $1.5K · now 91¢ · in at 88¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
1,159 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 98¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where V1nch0u's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Weather — held side won 99% of 1105 at an average 99¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 14% of 7)
- 30–50¢: 0%(won 50% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 0%(won 25% of 4)
- 70¢ and up: 99%(won 99% of 1146)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.