US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?

7 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (35%) · No at 96¢ · $37K held · ended Nov 1

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 35%

Total Value

$37.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Entry

92.9¢ → 96.2¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 20 top traders (35%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$35.3K

Total Shares36,748

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Yes13 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares52,700

Combined PnL$-2.2K

No — 35%Yes — 65%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

470h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

35% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 10

Diverging

sharpNo 71% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 78% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 61% · 18

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
V1 V1nch0u	Noavg 93.7¢	$21.5K	$22.0K	+$515.65	98% 1318-31 (1349)
BR browne	Noavg 91¢	$9.4K	$9.9K	+$529.61	71% 173-70 (243)
88 881112	Noavg 93.2¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$89.71	38% 567-944 (1511)
classifiedCTR	Yesavg 8.6¢	$1.1K	$606.23	-$453.76	58% 844-614 (1458)
ST stupid22	Noavg 96.1¢	$480.5	$480.75	+$0.25	94% 412-26 (438)
eCash	Noavg 91.1¢	$435.8	$459.71	+$29.18	68% 331-155 (486)
MisTKyCTR	Yesavg 10.2¢	$794.15	$302.64	-$491.51	71% 568-236 (804)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 8.3¢	$629.8	$296.32	-$340.45	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 5.5¢	$285.86	$207.9	-$140.33	40% 704-1062 (1766)
WA wan123CTR	Yesavg 14.5¢	$716.63	$190.39	-$526.23	39% 196-304 (500)
CarCTR	Yesavg 5.4¢	$239.98	$177.76	-$68.88	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 5.2¢	$171.75	$126.01	-$45.74	38% 20-32 (52)
BE berlinskies	Noavg 94.6¢	$99.99	$101.61	+$1.88	58% 5891-4317 (10208)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 95.1¢	$88.62	$89.53	+$0.91	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
cambridgeisaacCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$145.5	$82.78	-$88.59	57% 1114-837 (1951)
eightpenguinsCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$94.55	$56.45	-$37.4	52% 304-281 (585)
AO aosdijfCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$32.46	$26.5	-$13.91	9% 48-465 (513)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 5.5¢	$343.93	$17.9	+$3.06	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
MO Monopoly_MoneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$3.07	$3.58	+$0.42	63% 159-95 (254)
betwickCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$0.25	$0.39	+$0.14	55% 353-292 (645)

V1nch0u

Invested

$21,495.67

Value

$22.0K

PnL

+$515.65

Record

98%

1318-31 (1349)

browne

Invested

$9,403.6

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$529.61

Record

71%

173-70 (243)

881112

Invested

$2,149.8

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$89.71

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

classifiedCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,059.99

Value

$606.23

PnL

-$453.76

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

stupid22

Invested

$480.5

Value

$480.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

94%

412-26 (438)

eCash

Invested

$435.8

Value

$459.71

PnL

+$29.18

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

MisTKyCTR

Yes

Invested

$794.15

Value

$302.64

PnL

-$491.51

Record

71%

568-236 (804)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$629.8

Value

$296.32

PnL

-$340.45

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$285.86

Value

$207.9

PnL

-$140.33

Record

40%

704-1062 (1766)

wan123CTR

Yes

Invested

$716.63

Value

$190.39

PnL

-$526.23

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$239.98

Value

$177.76

PnL

-$68.88

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$171.75

Value

$126.01

PnL

-$45.74

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

berlinskies

Invested

$99.99

Value

$101.61

PnL

+$1.88

Record

58%

5891-4317 (10208)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$88.62

Value

$89.53

PnL

+$0.91

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

cambridgeisaacCTR

Yes

Invested

$145.5

Value

$82.78

PnL

-$88.59

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

eightpenguinsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.55

Value

$56.45

PnL

-$37.4

Record

52%

304-281 (585)

aosdijfCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.46

Value

$26.5

PnL

-$13.91

Record

48-465 (513)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$343.93

Value

$17.9

PnL

+$3.06

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

Monopoly_MoneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.07

Value

$3.58

PnL

+$0.42

Record

63%

159-95 (254)

betwickCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.39

PnL

+$0.14

Record

55%

353-292 (645)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 20 top traders (35%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

470h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

35% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 10

Diverging

sharpNo 71% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 78% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 61% · 18

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.2%

96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.93

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.