Will there be no Hormuz agreement?

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 97¢ · $138K held · ends Nov 4

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$138.0K

Combined PnL

$4.1K

Smart Money Entry

91¢ → 96.6¢

+6% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$132.5K

Total Shares138,043

Combined PnL+$5.8K

No5 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares144,180

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Late

500h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (7 on No) and the top 1000 (13 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 57% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
V1 V1nch0u	Yesavg 91.2¢	$62.5K	$58.4K	+$2.1K	98% 1318-31 (1349)
eCash	Yesavg 89.9¢	$17.6K	$18.8K	+$1.1K	68% 331-155 (486)
classified	Yesavg 90.3¢	$17.6K	$18.8K	+$1.1K	58% 844-614 (1458)
BU BunCaCham	Yesavg 94¢	$9.4K	$9.6K	+$85	97% 2582-68 (2650)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Yesavg 90.4¢	$7.6K	$8.1K	+$521.94	69% 156-69 (225)
MisTKy	Yesavg 91.9¢	$7.7K	$7.9K	+$213.51	71% 568-236 (804)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yesavg 89.7¢	$6.9K	$6.9K	+$496.37	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
betwickCTR	Noavg 5.9¢	$6.1K	$5.1K	-$955.66	55% 353-292 (645)
88 881112	Yesavg 90.4¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$145.66	38% 567-944 (1511)
Udonsan	Yesavg 95.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$9.92	79% 250-67 (317)
Parz1vaICTR	Noavg 8.3¢	$368.85	$168.87	-$222.2	72% 3507-1334 (4841)
ScottyNoooCTR	Noavg 14¢	$580.13	$148.36	-$415.66	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
yen4u<$100	Yesavg 88.1¢	$88.1	$95.9	+$8.5	86% 809-136 (945)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Noavg 5.9¢	$34.23	$19.55	-$14.68	38% 20-32 (52)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100	Noavg 14.5¢	$58	$15.2	-$40.4	57% 1114-837 (1951)

V1nch0u

Yes

Invested

$62,475.11

Value

$58.4K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

98%

1318-31 (1349)

eCash

Yes

Invested

$17,598.62

Value

$18.8K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

classified

Yes

Invested

$17,632.98

Value

$18.8K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

BunCaCham

Yes

Invested

$9,400

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$85

Record

97%

2582-68 (2650)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Yes

Invested

$7,568.64

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$521.94

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

MisTKy

Yes

Invested

$7,661.32

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$213.51

Record

71%

568-236 (804)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes

Invested

$6,874.25

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$496.37

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

betwickCTR

Invested

$6,080.22

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$955.66

Record

55%

353-292 (645)

881112

Yes

Invested

$2,538.6

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$145.66

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

Udonsan

Yes

Invested

$1,268.76

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$9.92

Record

79%

250-67 (317)

Parz1vaICTR

Invested

$368.85

Value

$168.87

PnL

-$222.2

Record

72%

3507-1334 (4841)

ScottyNoooCTR

Invested

$580.13

Value

$148.36

PnL

-$415.66

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

yen4u<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.1

Value

$95.9

PnL

+$8.5

Record

86%

809-136 (945)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Invested

$34.23

Value

$19.55

PnL

-$14.68

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

cambridgeisaacCTR<$100

Invested

$58

Value

$15.2

PnL

-$40.4

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Late

500h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (7 on No) and the top 1000 (13 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 57% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.