Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (91%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 9.5¢ · $12K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
10
Yes 70%
$12.0K
$-5.0K
41.6¢ → 9.5¢
-77% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 10%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Late
2193h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M2 M2sx92kljs42 | Noavg 41.4¢ | $3.1K | $6.7K | +$3.6K | 73% 350-129 (479) |
DE denizzCTR | Yesavg 46.1¢ | $7.9K | $1.8K | $-6.1K | 68% 597-284 (881) |
V1 V1nch0u | Noavg 87.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$28.4 | 98% 1318-31 (1349) |
88 881112 | Noavg 42.7¢ | $342.38 | $730.99 | +$388.61 | 38% 567-944 (1511) |
ME melonmanmCTR | Yesavg 24.1¢ | $656.85 | $308.23 | -$348.61 | 65% 527-282 (809) |
 Warren-BuffettCTR | Yesavg 46.3¢ | $1.4K | $300 | $-1.1K | 65% 862-465 (1327) |
 CarCTR | Yesavg 29.3¢ | $321.43 | $257.26 | -$64.17 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
 tetraseCTR | Yesavg 50.8¢ | $1.4K | $243.13 | -$993.09 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
 cambridgeisaacCTR | Yesavg 28.4¢ | $440 | $154.95 | -$292.79 | 57% 1114-837 (1951) |
 PorxCTR | Yesavg 26.3¢ | $184 | $70 | -$114 | 66% 1482-769 (2251) |
Invested
$3,073.72
Value
$6.7K
PnL
+$3.6K
Record
73%
350-129 (479)
Invested
$7,877.68
Value
$1.8K
PnL
$-6.1K
Record
68%
597-284 (881)
Invested
$1,466.27
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$28.4
Record
98%
1318-31 (1349)
Invested
$342.38
Value
$730.99
PnL
+$388.61
Record
38%
567-944 (1511)
Invested
$656.85
Value
$308.23
PnL
-$348.61
Record
65%
527-282 (809)
Warren-BuffettCTRInvested
$1,390
Value
$300
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
65%
862-465 (1327)
CarCTRInvested
$321.43
Value
$257.26
PnL
-$64.17
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
tetraseCTRInvested
$1,373.51
Value
$243.13
PnL
-$993.09
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
cambridgeisaacCTRInvested
$440
Value
$154.95
PnL
-$292.79
Record
57%
1114-837 (1951)
PorxCTRInvested
$184
Value
$70
PnL
-$114
Record
66%
1482-769 (2251)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.