Consensus PnL $333K · win rate 63% (298–178, n=476) · was PM monthly #688 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$332.8K
Record
298W / 178L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 476 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1017
Source
PM monthly #688
Trades
278
Markets
647
Volume
$3.8M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $500 · now 6¢ · in at 5¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?No $185 · now 96¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (71% of 21)
Specialties
444 settled consensus markets · held side won 68% at an average entry of 60¢- Esports
+17 pts
side won 70% of 149 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +26%
- Tennis
+12 pts
side won 66% of 68 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +33%
- NHL
+8 pts
side won 58% of 31 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +16%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 63% of 19 at an average 69¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI −9%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 27% of 55)
- 30–50¢: 22%(won 56% of 98)
- 50–70¢: 30%(won 69% of 132)
- 70¢ and up: 36%(won 89% of 159)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.