Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?
15 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 96¢ · $50K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
21
No 71%
$50.4K
$1.6K
83.5¢ → 95.8¢
+15% since entry · 15 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
15 of 21 top traders (71%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
15 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Late
2217h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH thoodr | Noavg 89.9¢ | $20.0K | $21.3K | +$1.3K | 96% 631-24 (655) |
FO Folletin | Noavg 74.1¢ | $7.9K | $10.0K | +$2.2K | 69% 423-188 (611) |
 DonaldinhoTrumpito | Noavg 78.5¢ | $4.2K | $5.1K | +$806.2 | 67% 506-251 (757) |
 scottilicious | Noavg 79.7¢ | $7.4K | $4.1K | +$1.4K | 82% 945-201 (1146) |
 AngryRhino | Noavg 85¢ | $3.4K | $3.8K | +$374 | 69% 133-59 (192) |
WO WoohxCTR | Yesavg 18.4¢ | $3.0K | $933.9 | $-2.1K | 56% 113-88 (201) |
CO cowcatCTR | Yesavg 24.2¢ | $3.4K | $788.64 | $-2.8K | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
 Cungly | Noavg 87.2¢ | $606.4 | $656.19 | +$49.44 | 63% 672-398 (1070) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 88.4¢ | $611.09 | $647.37 | +$41.11 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
 Parz1vaI | Noavg 79.1¢ | $574.04 | $579.72 | +$5.67 | 72% 3507-1334 (4841) |
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 77.8¢ | $447.38 | $542.79 | +$95.12 | 89% 4653-547 (5200) |
 Seutervoinen | Noavg 79¢ | $392.27 | $468.74 | +$76.22 | 85% 312-57 (369) |
 Socialista | Noavg 90.6¢ | $385.94 | $400.97 | +$15.02 | 63% 2725-1611 (4336) |
AL alwaysOn | Noavg 65.3¢ | $231.28 | $334.23 | +$102.78 | 77% 632-185 (817) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 77.8¢ | $266.38 | $296.97 | +$30.59 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
 CarCTR | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $104.99 | $203.33 | +$98.34 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
VE Vetch | Noavg 88.7¢ | $173.55 | $184.7 | +$11.05 | 60% 366-241 (607) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $15 | $57 | +$41.5 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
PK pkzCTR | Yesavg 19.9¢ | $105.86 | $30.26 | -$81.97 | 58% 469-346 (815) |
MO Momo63<$100 | Noavg 79.2¢ | $13.17 | $12.9 | -$0.27 | 93% 879-63 (942) |
 4751346CTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $49.5 | $8.55 | -$41.02 | 72% 1257-483 (1740) |
Invested
$19,999.9
Value
$21.3K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
96%
631-24 (655)
Invested
$7,881.99
Value
$10.0K
PnL
+$2.2K
Record
69%
423-188 (611)
DonaldinhoTrumpitoInvested
$4,249.18
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$806.2
Record
67%
506-251 (757)
scottiliciousInvested
$7,426.9
Value
$4.1K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
82%
945-201 (1146)
AngryRhinoInvested
$3,399.99
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$374
Record
69%
133-59 (192)
Invested
$3,012.69
Value
$933.9
PnL
$-2.1K
Record
56%
113-88 (201)
Invested
$3,385.23
Value
$788.64
PnL
$-2.8K
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
CunglyInvested
$606.4
Value
$656.19
PnL
+$49.44
Record
63%
672-398 (1070)
Invested
$611.09
Value
$647.37
PnL
+$41.11
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Parz1vaIInvested
$574.04
Value
$579.72
PnL
+$5.67
Record
72%
3507-1334 (4841)
Invested
$447.38
Value
$542.79
PnL
+$95.12
Record
89%
4653-547 (5200)
SeutervoinenInvested
$392.27
Value
$468.74
PnL
+$76.22
Record
85%
312-57 (369)
SocialistaInvested
$385.94
Value
$400.97
PnL
+$15.02
Record
63%
2725-1611 (4336)
Invested
$231.28
Value
$334.23
PnL
+$102.78
Record
77%
632-185 (817)
Tenebrus7Invested
$266.38
Value
$296.97
PnL
+$30.59
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
CarCTRInvested
$104.99
Value
$203.33
PnL
+$98.34
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
Invested
$173.55
Value
$184.7
PnL
+$11.05
Record
60%
366-241 (607)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$15
Value
$57
PnL
+$41.5
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
Invested
$105.86
Value
$30.26
PnL
-$81.97
Record
58%
469-346 (815)
Invested
$13.17
Value
$12.9
PnL
-$0.27
Record
93%
879-63 (942)
4751346CTR<$100Invested
$49.5
Value
$8.55
PnL
-$41.02
Record
72%
1257-483 (1740)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.