Consensus PnL $76K · win rate 68% (110–51, n=161) · hand-picked wallet · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$76.5K
Record
110W / 51L
Win Rate
68.0%
of 161 settled
Batting Avg
67.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#828
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
20,356
Markets
386
Volume
$4.0M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 4 on the consensus side (25%)- Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?No $3.2K · now 83¢ · in at 89¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No $2.3K · now 76¢ · in at 79¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?No $723 · now 46¢ · in at 76¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Papertrade FDV above $75M one day after launch?Yes $132 · now 39¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
Specialties
239 settled consensus markets · held side won 63% at an average entry of 55¢- Crypto
+9 pts
side won 61% of 175 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +4%
- Finance
+19 pts
side won 92% of 13 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +2%
- Soccer
+7 pts
side won 79% of 19 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +1%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 33%(won 23% of 78)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 26% of 23)
- 50–70¢: 14%(won 76% of 34)
- 70¢ and up: 44%(won 97% of 104)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.