Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Papertrade FDV above $75M one day after launch?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 39¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 50%
$5.1K
$-1.4K
76.1¢ → 38.5¢
-49% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
338h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AllByMyseIf | Noavg 58.1¢ | $2.6K | $2.7K | +$154.55 | 65% 671-357 (1028) |
 gatonekkiCTR | Yesavg 79.7¢ | $3.2K | $1.6K | $-1.6K | 63% 22-13 (35) |
 2B9S | Noavg 10.9¢ | $52.42 | $333 | +$280.58 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
MU muddyrcCTR | Yesavg 63¢ | $315 | $200 | -$122.5 | 51% 230-218 (448) |
VI VitaaalyaCTR | Yesavg 53¢ | $179.29 | $131.59 | -$47.7 | 71% 247-103 (350) |
OD odsowner<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $60.94 | $64.2 | +$4.87 | 55% 153-127 (280) |
SE SeniorLaghetto<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $11.14 | $11.33 | +$0.47 | 69% 404-180 (584) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $3.35 | $3.35 | +$0 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
AllByMyseIfInvested
$2,571.43
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$154.55
Record
65%
671-357 (1028)
gatonekkiCTRInvested
$3,189.99
Value
$1.6K
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
63%
22-13 (35)
2B9SInvested
$52.42
Value
$333
PnL
+$280.58
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
Invested
$315
Value
$200
PnL
-$122.5
Record
51%
230-218 (448)
Invested
$179.29
Value
$131.59
PnL
-$47.7
Record
71%
247-103 (350)
Invested
$60.94
Value
$64.2
PnL
+$4.87
Record
55%
153-127 (280)
Invested
$11.14
Value
$11.33
PnL
+$0.47
Record
69%
404-180 (584)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$3.35
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.