Consensus PnL $99K · win rate 87% (3264–509, n=3773) · PM monthly #151 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$99.0K
Record
3264W / 509L
Win Rate
87.0%
of 3773 settled
Batting Avg
26.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#287
Source
PM monthly #151
Trades
4,087
Markets
4,150
Volume
$5.5M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $141K · now 19¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats?No $207 · now 42¢ · in at 51¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
3,173 settled consensus markets · held side won 87% at an average entry of 86¢- MLB
+4 pts
side won 96% of 289 · avg entry 92¢
ROI +2%
- Mentions
+2 pts
side won 91% of 291 · avg entry 89¢
ROI +1%
- Soccer
+2 pts
side won 88% of 109 · avg entry 86¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Weather — held side won 79% of 179 at an average 81¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 12% of 120)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 34% of 155)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 61% of 309)
- 70¢ and up: 82%(won 97% of 2589)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.