Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (42%) · Yes at 59¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 3

Yes59¢No41¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 42%

Total Value

$13.3K

Combined PnL

$740.07

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 58.5¢

+12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares17,769

Combined PnL+$1.3K

No7 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares7,421

Combined PnL-$551.43

Yes — 42%No — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

502h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

9 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SL SlavaUkraini	Yesavg 52¢	$4.9K	$7.8K	+$1.1K	71% 160-66 (226)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 56.3¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$67.11	38% 20-32 (52)
paddaaCTR	Noavg 54¢	$1.9K	$1.4K	-$433.52	56% 836-645 (1481)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Noavg 41.9¢	$435.96	$1.2K	-$54.46	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
EA Eatpraylove	Yesavg 46.9¢	$478.61	$592.18	+$118.68	57% 766-585 (1351)
VI VivianWardCTR	Noavg 51¢	$254.99	$207.5	-$47.5	86% 3499-571 (4070)
SN SnoorrasonCTR	Noavg 41.6¢	$108.44	$108.17	-$0.27	39% 1181-1881 (3062)
wagwanshawty<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$82.5	$87	+$5.25	— 10-5 (15)
ST StraddleSellerCTR<$100	Noavg 46.3¢	$64.38	$57.55	-$6.83	60% 174-115 (289)
KimchiCapitalCTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$47.7	$36	-$10.35	75% 540-176 (716)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 48.8¢	$22.5	$24	+$1.5	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 56.2¢	$9.59	$6.99	-$0.24	76% 11354-3525 (14879)

SlavaUkraini

Yes

Invested

$4,854.15

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

71%

160-66 (226)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$1,739.71

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$67.11

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

paddaaCTR

Invested

$1,874.07

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$433.52

Record

56%

836-645 (1481)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Invested

$435.96

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$54.46

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

Eatpraylove

Yes

Invested

$478.61

Value

$592.18

PnL

+$118.68

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

VivianWardCTR

Invested

$254.99

Value

$207.5

PnL

-$47.5

Record

86%

3499-571 (4070)

SnoorrasonCTR

Invested

$108.44

Value

$108.17

PnL

-$0.27

Record

39%

1181-1881 (3062)

wagwanshawty<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.5

Value

$87

PnL

+$5.25

Record

—

10-5 (15)

StraddleSellerCTR<$100

Invested

$64.38

Value

$57.55

PnL

-$6.83

Record

60%

174-115 (289)

KimchiCapitalCTR<$100

Invested

$47.7

Value

$36

PnL

-$10.35

Record

75%

540-176 (716)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$22.5

Value

$24

PnL

+$1.5

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.59

Value

$6.99

PnL

-$0.24

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

502h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

9 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.5%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$65.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

165.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.