Consensus PnL $1.1M · win rate 59% (419–295, n=714) · was PM monthly #820 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$1.1M
Record
419W / 295L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 714 settled
Batting Avg
75.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1223
Source
PM monthly #820
Trades
540
Markets
852
Volume
$8.1M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?No $2.3K · now 84¢with the consensus (64% of 11)
Specialties
706 settled consensus markets · held side won 57% at an average entry of 51¢- Soccer
+33 pts
side won 88% of 16 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +22%
- Mentions
+8 pts
side won 60% of 230 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +25%
- Geopolitics
+9 pts
side won 63% of 90 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +22%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 55% of 78 at an average 58¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI +6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 35%(won 18% of 244)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 52% of 89)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 66% of 123)
- 70¢ and up: 35%(won 92% of 250)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.