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7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 84¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$684.89

Smart Money Entry

71.1¢ → 84¢

+18% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares5,184

Combined PnL+$500.28

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares6,372

Combined PnL+$184.61

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

1999h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

10 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Wickier	No	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$198.92	56% 480-380 (860)
ME melonmanm	Noavg 77.4¢	$613.21	$668.85	+$55.64	65% 527-282 (809)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 82.2¢	$597.01	$597.01	+$0	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR	Yesavg 17¢	$462.66	$514.73	+$52.07	50% 415-417 (832)
SI singularitymanCTR	Yesavg 11.5¢	$346.82	$484.06	+$137.24	42% 138-193 (331)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 86¢	$430	$395.5	-$11.63	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
DOG-UndressedVersion	Noavg 39¢	$97.5	$212.5	+$112.5	51% 2279-2148 (4427)
StarMaster	Noavg 9¢	$20.39	$165.04	+$144.65	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 83.5¢	$34.66	$34.87	+$0.21	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
RelaccsedCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$24	$16	-$8	56% 1213-967 (2180)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$1.5	$4.8	+$3.3	47% 2036-2278 (4314)

Wickier

Invested

$2,332.39

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$198.92

Record

56%

480-380 (860)

melonmanm

Invested

$613.21

Value

$668.85

PnL

+$55.64

Record

65%

527-282 (809)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$597.01

Value

$597.01

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

Contentious-DinnerdateCTR

Yes

Invested

$462.66

Value

$514.73

PnL

+$52.07

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

singularitymanCTR

Yes

Invested

$346.82

Value

$484.06

PnL

+$137.24

Record

42%

138-193 (331)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$430

Value

$395.5

PnL

-$11.63

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

DOG-UndressedVersion

Invested

$97.5

Value

$212.5

PnL

+$112.5

Record

51%

2279-2148 (4427)

StarMaster

Invested

$20.39

Value

$165.04

PnL

+$144.65

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$34.66

Value

$34.87

PnL

+$0.21

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

RelaccsedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24

Value

$16

PnL

-$8

Record

56%

1213-967 (2180)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$3.3

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

1999h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

10 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.5%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.