Consensus PnL $19K · win rate 83% (57–12, n=69) · PM monthly #926 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$18.7K
Record
57W / 12L
Win Rate
83.0%
of 69 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#372
Source
PM monthly #926
Trades
5
Markets
75
Volume
$122.3K
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 3 on the consensus side (33%)- Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?No $4.6K · now 89¢ · in at 90¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?No $2.3K · now 89¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (50% of 16)
- Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?No $42 · now 99¢ · in at 96¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
50 settled consensus markets · held side won 94% at an average entry of 56¢- NFL
+48 pts
side won 100% of 33 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +46%
- Soccer
+18 pts
side won 82% of 17 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +14%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 0% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 38%(won 95% of 19)
- 50–70¢: 44%(won 95% of 22)
- 70¢ and up: 16%(won 100% of 8)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.