Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (89%). 7 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 11¢ · $110K held · ends Nov 3

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

Total Value

$109.6K

Combined PnL

$77.8K

Smart Money Entry

2.4¢ → 10.8¢

+358% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 16 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$99.1K

Total Shares924,085

Combined PnL+$77.7K

No9 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares11,820

Combined PnL+$132.15

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrNo 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$5.0K	$83.8K	+$78.8K	43% 561-738 (1299)
0X 0x498d2...CTR	Yesavg 11¢	$11.0K	$10.5K	-$199.7	— 7-3 (10)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 87.9¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$55.03	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 13.5¢	$3.9K	$3.1K	-$804.94	38% 20-32 (52)
AB abc51001	Noavg 87.1¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$55.54	61% 52-33 (85)
ET ethBELIVER	Noavg 89.1¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$2.85	40% 25-37 (62)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 11.8¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$161.03	36% 190-333 (523)
MI milkteaboba	Noavg 85.7¢	$912.6	$950.29	+$37.69	69% 38-17 (55)
BU BunCaCham	Noavg 90.2¢	$900.5	$891	-$9.5	97% 2582-68 (2650)
LI lissartter	Noavg 90.9¢	$499.71	$471.78	-$8.53	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 89.3¢	$219.55	$218.68	-$0.87	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
UbuntuTrading	Noavg 89.3¢	$161.24	$161.24	+$0	57% 3069-2356 (5425)
GG GGLPL<$100	Noavg 89.4¢	$31.32	$31.26	-$0.06	50% 697-693 (1390)
viniiCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.6¢	$31.1	$28.04	-$2.39	74% 2792-1004 (3796)
smellyEllieCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$11	$10.5	-$0.2	50% 970-988 (1958)
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.1¢	$6.14	$4.94	-$1.09	78% 283-79 (362)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,003.94

Value

$83.8K

PnL

+$78.8K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

0x498d2...CTR

Yes

Invested

$10,999.8

Value

$10.5K

PnL

-$199.7

Record

—

7-3 (10)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$3,687.59

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$55.03

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,930.59

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$804.94

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

abc51001

Invested

$2,249.98

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$55.54

Record

61%

52-33 (85)

ethBELIVER

Invested

$1,695.31

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$2.85

Record

40%

25-37 (62)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,739.08

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$161.03

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

milkteaboba

Invested

$912.6

Value

$950.29

PnL

+$37.69

Record

69%

38-17 (55)

BunCaCham

Invested

$900.5

Value

$891

PnL

-$9.5

Record

97%

2582-68 (2650)

lissartter

Invested

$499.71

Value

$471.78

PnL

-$8.53

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$219.55

Value

$218.68

PnL

-$0.87

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

UbuntuTrading

Invested

$161.24

Value

$161.24

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

3069-2356 (5425)

GGLPL<$100

Invested

$31.32

Value

$31.26

PnL

-$0.06

Record

50%

697-693 (1390)

viniiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.1

Value

$28.04

PnL

-$2.39

Record

74%

2792-1004 (3796)

smellyEllieCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11

Value

$10.5

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

970-988 (1958)

0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.14

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$1.09

Record

78%

283-79 (362)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 16 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors No 89%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrNo 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.2%

10.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$722.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

822.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.