Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 1.0¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 3

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$14.9K

Combined PnL

$3.7K

Smart Money Entry

0.7¢ → 1¢

+44% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$14.2K

Total Shares1,486,625

Combined PnL+$3.6K

No4 traders

Total Value$736.22

Total Shares743

Combined PnL+$22.48

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

78h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$9.6K	$13.6K	+$4.1K	43% 561-738 (1299)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 96.3¢	$625.51	$645.5	+$19.99	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
Tenebrus7CTR	Yesavg 2.1¢	$654.48	$335.12	-$365.59	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$138.5	$154	+$2.06	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
StarMasterCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$50	$50.71	+$0.71	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$226.83	$45.02	-$52.32	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$42.74	$43.83	+$1.07	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
AB abc51001<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$41.04	$42.43	+$1.36	61% 52-33 (85)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$4.41	$4.46	+$0.05	51% 2516-2391 (4907)
themagicofcinemaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.44	$0.27	-$0.2	66% 431-218 (649)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,562.57

Value

$13.6K

PnL

+$4.1K

Record

43%

561-738 (1299)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$625.51

Value

$645.5

PnL

+$19.99

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

Tenebrus7CTR

Yes

Invested

$654.48

Value

$335.12

PnL

-$365.59

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$138.5

Value

$154

PnL

+$2.06

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

StarMasterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50

Value

$50.71

PnL

+$0.71

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$226.83

Value

$45.02

PnL

-$52.32

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$42.74

Value

$43.83

PnL

+$1.07

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

abc51001<$100

Invested

$41.04

Value

$42.43

PnL

+$1.36

Record

61%

52-33 (85)

merod<$100

Invested

$4.41

Value

$4.46

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

2516-2391 (4907)

themagicofcinemaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$0.2

Record

66%

431-218 (649)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

78h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 6

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.1%

1.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4711.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

4811.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.