Consensus PnL $178K · win rate 44% (143–180, n=323) · PM monthly #166 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$177.8K
Record
143W / 180L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 323 settled
Batting Avg
43.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2018
Source
PM monthly #166
Trades
1,396
Markets
407
Volume
$10.8M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 4 on the consensus side (100%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $350K · now 19¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $22K · now 72¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $10K · now 95¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $284 · now 95¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
Specialties
321 settled consensus markets · held side won 46% at an average entry of 45¢- Soccer
+28 pts
side won 100% of 14 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +12%
- Geopolitics
+12 pts
side won 100% of 16 · avg entry 88¢
ROI +10%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 37% of 246 at an average 38¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 47%(won 1% of 152)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 48% of 23)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 77% of 26)
- 70¢ and up: 37%(won 96% of 120)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.