Consensus PnL $25K · win rate 53% (142–126, n=268) · PM monthly #837 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$25.4K
Record
142W / 126L
Win Rate
53.0%
of 268 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1575
Source
PM monthly #837
Trades
181
Markets
345
Volume
$1.0M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 6 on the consensus side (83%)- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?No $38K · now 90¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (65% of 37)
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?No $21K · now 73¢ · in at 74¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?No $16K · now 95¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (80% of 25)
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?No $5.1K · now 96¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (81% of 31)
- Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $3.2K · now 5¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (83% of 12)
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?No $2.8K · now 97¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (86% of 22)
Specialties
280 settled consensus markets · held side won 62% at an average entry of 55¢- NHL
+22 pts
side won 79% of 34 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +25%
- NBA
+14 pts
side won 70% of 27 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +7%
- MMA
+9 pts
side won 55% of 40 · avg entry 46¢
ROI −5%
Weakest: College Basketball — held side won 56% of 109 at an average 57¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 11% of 19)
- 30–50¢: 25%(won 55% of 69)
- 50–70¢: 47%(won 64% of 132)
- 70¢ and up: 21%(won 82% of 60)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.