Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 4.9¢ · $9K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Entry

3.7¢ → 4.9¢

+32% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares173,532

Combined PnL+$2.1K

No2 traders

Total Value$28.15

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$0.76

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

23 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NE neymar1CTR	Yesavg 4.1¢	$3.0K	$3.5K	+$551.56	30% 324-771 (1095)
BA ballincoCTR	Yesavg 3.4¢	$2.2K	$3.2K	+$962.86	53% 153-136 (289)
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$306.71	$529.06	+$222.35	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 4.1¢	$331.09	$395.4	+$64.39	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 2.9¢	$219.46	$347.31	+$127.85	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
bosshogCTR	Yesavg 3.2¢	$160	$245	+$85	72% 1052-415 (1467)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 3.6¢	$60.27	$143.88	+$51.04	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$1.45	$87.02	+$33.12	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$8.69	$36.5	+$12.94	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$24.5	$24.5	+$0	57% 3069-2356 (5425)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 98¢	$24.1	$23.39	-$0.71	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$4.81	$4.76	-$0.06	73% 41-15 (56)

neymar1CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,953.7

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$551.56

Record

30%

324-771 (1095)

ballincoCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,231.55

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$962.86

Record

53%

153-136 (289)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$306.71

Value

$529.06

PnL

+$222.35

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$331.09

Value

$395.4

PnL

+$64.39

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$219.46

Value

$347.31

PnL

+$127.85

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

bosshogCTR

Yes

Invested

$160

Value

$245

PnL

+$85

Record

72%

1052-415 (1467)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$60.27

Value

$143.88

PnL

+$51.04

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$87.02

PnL

+$33.12

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.69

Value

$36.5

PnL

+$12.94

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.5

Value

$24.5

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

3069-2356 (5425)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$24.1

Value

$23.39

PnL

-$0.71

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

$4.81

Value

$4.76

PnL

-$0.06

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

23 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.2%

4.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1518.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

1618.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.